Domestic coffee prices
On November 14, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions decreased by 500 VND/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region to 112,800 VND/kg. This is the second consecutive deep decline after yesterday's historic collapse.
Specifically, in Dak Lak and Dak Nong (old), prices both decreased by 500 VND/kg to 113,000 VND/kg. Gia Lai also decreased by 500 VND/kg to 112,500 VND/kg, and Lam Dong to 111,000 VND/kg. This price has erased the recovery results of many previous weeks.
World coffee prices
The international coffee market (transacted on November 13.) continued to sink into red, although the decline slowed down compared to the previous sell-off session.
Robusta ( London) decreased by 23 USD/ton (down 0.52%), down to 4,343 USD/ton (term 1/26), the lowest level in 2 weeks.
Arabica (New York) also decreased by 1.95 US cents/lb (down 0.47%), closing at 401.70 US cents/lb.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The price crash yesterday has not stopped, the market is still overwhelmed by news about the possibility of the US lifting the 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee. The US Treasury Secretary's announcement that there will be an "ight-to-ight announcement" in the next few days continues to promote sell-off activities.
The downward pressure on prices increased sharply when StoneX issued a gloomy forecast for Brazil's 2026/27 crop, predicting output to increase by 29%. Weather news also no longer supports prices, as Minas Gerais (Brazil) received 160% of the average rainfall last week, relieving concerns about drought. In addition, the supply of Robusta from Vietnam is still very abundant (exports increased by 13.4% in 10 months and the crop is forecast to be bumper).
Despite the decline, coffee prices are still supported by a real factor: international inventory is still extremely low. Arabica inventories have fallen to a 1.75-year low and Robusta is also at a 3.75-month low. This shortage is still a consequence of the current tariffs.
The short-term trend forecast is negative. News about tariffs and forecasts of abundant supply have completely overwhelmed concerns about low inventories. The market may continue to explore new bottom.
