Domestic coffee prices
On November 2, domestic coffee prices remained stable at the weekend closing price of VND 116,800/kg.
The past trading week (October 27 - October) was a volatile week. The market started the week at 116,800 VND/kg, then immediately decreased sharply by 1,300 VND/kg (October 28). However, prices have recovered strongly in the middle of the week, sometimes up to VND 116,500/kg (October 30) thanks to buying pressure when prices decreased.
However, in the last session of the week (October 31), coffee prices fell sharply by 1,200 VND/kg.
To summarize the week, despite many strong fluctuations, coffee prices have returned to the starting line.
World coffee prices
International exchanges are temporarily closed. The fluctuations last week reflected the tug-of-war in the market.
Earlier this week, prices fell sharply in the hope of the US-Brazil removing 50% of tariffs and forecasting a sharp increase in Vietnam's output. But in midweek, Robusta ( London) exploded again (October 30 session) due to concerns about record-low inventories.
However, the increase could not be maintained. In the last session of the month (October 31), Robusta fell sharply by 98 USD/ton due to profit-taking activities at the end of the month, while Arabica also closed the week in red.
Assessment and forecast
The coffee market last week showed extreme tensions. The biggest supporting factor for prices is still very low inventories (both Robusta and Arabica), along with the risk of La Nina causing drought in Brazil.
However, the downward pressure on prices is also very clear, coming from the hope that the US-Brazil will remove tariffs and the abundant supply of Robusta from Vietnam's new crop. The fact that prices have returned to the starting line shows that the market has not yet decided a clear trend.
It is forecasted that next week, prices will continue to be dominated by news about the progress of US-Brazil tariff negotiations and the actual harvest progress in Vietnam. Strong fluctuations are likely to continue.
