Domestic coffee prices
On December 2, the domestic coffee market witnessed a strong "shock" in price reduction, marking a reversal after a series of days of staying at a high level.
Pressure from the world market resonate with the new crop supply, causing domestic purchasing prices to "evaporate" by an average of VND4,100/kg in just one session.
Specifically, the average price is currently only 106,900 VND/kg, officially losing the important psychological support mark of 110,000 VND/kg.
In the capital Dak Lak, the purchase price decreased by VND 4,000, down to VND 107,000/kg.
Similarly, in Lam Dong - where harvesting is taking place most busily - the price decreased by 4,000 VND to 106,500 VND/kg.
Gia Lai and Dak Nong provinces (old) are also not out of the trend when recording the decrease of 4,100 VND and 4,200 VND/kg respectively, bringing the trading price back to around 106,600 - 107,000 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
In the international market, red covered the two futures exchanges when speculators massively liquidated their positions. At the end of the most recent trading session, Robusta coffee prices on the London futures exchange for delivery in January 2026 fell sharply by $93/ton (equivalent to 2.03%), closing at $4,472/ton. This is a very significant decrease, pushing the price of this type of coffee back to its lowest level in the past week.
Sharing the same negative trend, Arabica coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange for December 2025 also turned down 1.50 cents/lb (equivalent to 0.35%), closing at 411.50 cents/lb. The simultaneous weakness of both exchanges shows that cash flow is temporarily withdrawing from the agricultural commodity market due to major changes in macro policies in key consumer markets.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The main reason for the sell-off momentum in the last session came from an important legal decision in Europe. The European Parliament (EU)'s official approval of the postponement of the application of the EUDR for another year has relieved the worry of short-term supply shortages.
This delay allows EU countries to continue importing coffee from regions in Africa, Indonesia and South America without immediately requiring strict certificates, thereby keeping supply in the market more abundant than expected.
In addition, pressure from Vietnam's supply is also weighing on prices. Statistics show that Vietnam's coffee exports in the first 10 months of 2025 increased by 13.4% over the same period. Vietnam's 2025/2026 crop output is forecast to increase by about 6% to 1.76 million tons, even the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa) is optimistic about forecasting a growth rate of up to 10% if the weather is favorable.
However, coffee prices are still held back by concerns about weather in Brazil and record-low inventories. In Minas Gerais state - Brazil's largest Arabica growing region, rainfall last week only reached 39% of the historical average, raising concerns about drought affecting next crop productivity. In particular, coffee inventories on the ICE are at an alarming level: Arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low, while Robusta inventories hit a bottom in more than 6 months.
Notably, US President Donald Trump's tariff policies on Brazilian goods are causing great disruption. US importers have canceled many new purchases from Brazil, causing imports from the country to decrease by 52% in the August-October period. This leads to local supply tightening in the US market, forcing roasters to use reserves, rapidly reducing the amount of monitored inventories.
It is forecasted that in the short term, the market will continue to be under pressure to adjust due to the mentality of "rooming" the new crop from Vietnam and the psychological effect of the postponement of EUDR. However, with low inventories and weather risks still present in South America, coffee prices are unlikely to fall too much and there will likely be technical recoveries when cash flow returns to bottom.
