Domestic coffee prices
Although the international market has strong fluctuations, domestic coffee prices on February 21 still showed persistent resistance when maintaining a sideways state at a high level. In the context of the holiday season gradually closing, the fact that the price base still stands firm close to the 98,000 VND/kg mark makes many people surprised by the strength of the domestic market this year.
Detailed purchase prices recorded in key areas:
Dak Nong (old): Continuing to lead the whole region with a price firmly anchored at 97,900 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Trading stable at 97,700 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: Maintains the price level of 96,400 VND/kg.
The silence of domestic soybean kernel prices while the world is fluctuating shows that farmers' psychology is very stable, combined with the support from the USD/VND exchange rate currently anchored high at 25,750 VND/USD.
World coffee prices
The last trading session of the week recorded mixed positions between the London and New York exchanges, showing the fierce tug-of-war of speculators.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 futures fell 29 USD (equivalent to 0.80%), falling to 3,591 USD/ton. Supply pressure from Vietnam is still the main factor weighing on this exchange when data shows that January exports jumped 38.3%. In addition, inventory on the ICE exchange, which has recovered significantly since the bottom of December, also curbed the increase.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): After hitting a 15-month low in the previous session, Arabica futures for May 2026 slightly recovered 0.30 cents (equivalent to 0.11%), reaching 285.70 cents/lb. The weakening of the USD in Friday's session triggered a lack of buying replenishment from investment funds, helping the price temporarily escape the deep bottom.
Despite the recovery, long-term prospects are still under pressure from Conab's report on the forecast of a record 2026 crop in Brazil (66.2 million sacks) and abundant rainfall in Minas Gerais state reaching 113% of the historical average.
Market opinion
The differentiation of world prices is putting the domestic market into an exciting waiting scenario when officially returning to trading after Tet. The support from Colombia's production decline (down 34% in January) and Brazil's exports falling sharply by 42.4% is directly facing pressure from the upcoming record crop of South America.
For farmers, the fact that the price is still anchored in the high zone close to 98,000 VND/kg while the world is under pressure is a good opportunity to re-evaluate the sales plan. The trend next week will depend greatly on whether bottom-fishing cash flow continues to support the Arabica exchange and how strong the selling pressure from Vietnam after Tet will be.
