Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning's trading session recorded widespread green, with an average increase of 300 to 500 VND/kg in key regions. After slight fluctuations, coffee bean prices in the Central Highlands provinces have established a new solid price level above 111,000 VND/kg.
Specifically, in Dak Lak province, the purchase price increased by 300 VND compared to yesterday, listed at 112,300 VND/kg.
Similarly, in Lam Dong province, coffee prices increased slightly by 300 VND, currently trading at 111,300 VND/kg.
Gia Lai recorded an increase of 400 VND, bringing the selling price to 111,900 VND/kg.
Notably, Dak Nong (old) continues to be the locality with the highest purchasing price in the region, increasing sharply by 500 VND to reach 112,500 VND/kg.
In addition, the USD/VND exchange rate listed by Vietcombank is currently at VND 26,132, down slightly by VND 30 compared to the previous session, partly supporting domestic trading sentiment.
World coffee prices
In the international market, the two major exchanges recorded mixed developments but generally maintained their upward momentum, especially for Robusta.
At the end of the most recent trading session, Robusta coffee prices on the London Stock Exchange for delivery in January 2026 increased by 26 USD, equivalent to 0.57%, to 4,565 USD/ton. Subsequent delivery terms such as March and May 2026 also recorded increases of 24 USD and 30 USD respectively.
The main reason for the increase in Robusta prices is that the latest weather forecast models show that drought is likely to return to Vietnam's key coffee growing region this week, raising concerns about the crop productivity of the world's largest Robusta producer.
Meanwhile, on the New York exchange, Arabica coffee futures for December 2025 delivery also maintained a slight green color, up 1.50 cents, at 413.00 cents/lb. However, Arabica's rally is facing certain resistance after the US Secretary of Commerce signaled that Brazilian coffee could be exempted from tariffs. This information has somewhat eased concerns about supply disruptions from the world's largest Arabica producer, limiting the burning increase of this commodity compared to previous sessions when the market was concerned about the possibility of a 50% tax rate on Brazilian goods.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
From the perspective of technical analysis and cash flow, the market is witnessing a tug-of-war between supply and demand factors. The fact that hedge funds are holding a large net-short position for Robusta could be a factor triggering short-term price increases due to short-covering activities, especially when there are unfavorable weather news in Vietnam.
In terms of supply, pressure from Brazil's harvest is still present. Reports show that the harvest progress in Brazil is going smoothly and faster than the 5-year average, ensuring an abundant supply of Arabica for the market. However, on the other hand, Brazil's export figures in the previous month showed signs of decline, combined with Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange, although increasing but still low in the long term, creating certain support for prices.
Volcafe forecasts that the global market will face an Arabica deficit of about 8.5 million bags in the 2025/2026 crop year, marking the fifth consecutive year of the deficit. This, combined with the USDA forecast of coffee output in Vietnam despite increasing but still facing weather risks, shows that the coffee price trend in the medium and long term still has a lot of room for fluctuations. In the short term, the market will continue to be sensitive to information about the weather in the coffee growing area of Vietnam and tariff policies from the US.
