Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning recorded a sharp decline, marking a volatile trading session that caused purchasing prices in key growing areas to retreat far from the resistance levels established last week.
After a series of days of struggles, the pressure of selling off following the decline of the world has caused domestic coffee beans to lose an average of more than 2,000 VND/kg in just one session.
In the coffee capital of Dak Lak, the current purchase price is only 101,100 VND/kg, down 2,100 VND compared to the previous session.
Similarly, in Gia Lai province, prices also recorded a corresponding decrease, falling back to the mark of VND100 600/kg.
Dak Nong (old) is still the locality with the highest price in the Central Highlands region, but there is only trading at 101,200 VND/kg after a decrease of 2,100 VND.
Notably, in Lam Dong, coffee prices have dropped close to VND100,000, currently trading at VND100 500/kg, down VND2,000/kg.
This development shows the cautious sentiment covering the domestic market as supply from the new harvest is gradually being put into stronger circulation, in harmony with unfavorable macro factors from the international market.
World coffee prices
In the international market, red covered both major exchanges as hedge funds and traders stepped up selling ahead of loose information about supply.
At the end of the most recent trading session, Robusta coffee prices on the London Stock Exchange for January 2026 futures fell sharply by 77 USD/ton, equivalent to a decrease of 1.78%, at 4,218 USD/ton.
Subsequent delivery terms also recorded a sharp decrease, with the March 2026 term down to 2.05%, falling to 4,092 USD/ton. This is Robusta's lowest level in more than 2 months.
Sharing the same negative trend, Arabica coffee prices on the New York stock exchange also plummeted. The December 2025 delivery term decreased by 10.20 cents/lb, closing at 396.05 cents/lb, down 2.50% compared to the previous session. The March 2026 delivery term also decreased by 8.65 cents, closing at 366.20 cents/lb. This price has pushed Arabica down to its lowest level in the past 2 weeks.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The coffee market is under great pressure from the prospect of abundant supply, the main factor causing prices on both exchanges to plummet in the first session of the week.
Conab - Brazil's crop forecasting agency - has just raised the forecast for the country's total coffee output in 2025 by 2.4%, to 56.54 million bags. At the same time, data from the Vietnam Statistics Office shows that coffee exports in November skyrocketed by 39% over the same period, reaching 88,000 tons, bringing the total export volume in the first 11 months of the year to nearly 1.4 million tons, up 14.8% over last year.
In addition, information from StoneX predicting that Brazil's output in the 2026/27 crop year could reach 70.7 million bags (up 29% over the same period) is also a strong blow to the bullish psychology. The European Parliament's decision to delay the EUDR by another year also contributes to easing concerns about supply chain disruption, allowing the flow of goods from Africa and South America to continue to the EU, thereby putting downward pressure on prices.
However, the market's decline is still being held back by a number of important supporting factors. First is the extreme weather in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais - Brazil's largest Arabica growing area - received just 11mm of rain last week, just 17% of the historical average. This raises concerns about the quality of the upcoming crop.
The second factor is the serious decline in inventory on the ICE. Robusta inventories on ICE fell to an 11.5 month low, with only 4,021 lots left on Monday. Meanwhile, the tariffs applied by the US to Brazilian goods have prompted US buyers to cancel import contracts from Brazil, tightening supply in the US market and reducing the amount of Arabica inventories monitored.
Looking at the long term, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that global coffee output in the 2025/26 crop year will increase by 2.5% to a record of 178.68 million bags. In the context of Vietnam entering the peak harvest season with a forecast of 6% increase in output to 1.76 million tons, pressure on coffee prices, especially Robusta, is expected to continue in the short term if there are no unexpected fluctuations in the weather.
