At the Government-local conference on economic growth in 2025 on July 16, Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang said that the ministry had advised on the development of 2 scenarios.
Scenario 1 determines growth for the whole year of 2025 to reach 8%, growth in the third quarter must reach 8.3% over the same period, equivalent to the scenario in Resolution 154/NQ-CP; in the fourth quarter it will reach 8.5% (higher than the scenario of 0.1%).
The GDP scale for the whole year is over 508 billion USD, GDP per capita is over 5,000 USD.
With scenario 2 (growth for the whole year of 2025 reaching 8.3-8.5%), the Ministry estimates that growth in the third quarter should reach 8.9-9.2% over the same period (higher than the scenario of 0.6-0.9%); in the fourth quarter, it will reach 9.1-9.5% (higher than the scenario of 0.7-1.1%). The GDP in 2025 is about over 510 billion USD, GDP per capita is about 5,020 USD.
Corresponding to the two above-mentioned scenarios, Minister Nguyen Van Thang said that the Ministry of Finance has expected the growth scenario of localities and corporations, general companies, and state-owned enterprises.
"Growth scenarios depend on the effectiveness of implementing policies and solutions, especially in mobilizing and using resources for growth," said the Minister.
To achieve the set target, the Ministry of Finance believes that localities need to achieve a higher growth rate in 2025 than the target in Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP, especially leading localities, the growth driver of the whole country.
These include: Hanoi increased by 8.5% (higher than 0.5%), Ho Chi Minh City increased by 8.5% (higher than 0.4%), Quang Ninh 12.5% (higher than 1%), Thai Nguyen 8% (higher than 0.5%)... Corporations, general companies, and state-owned enterprises need to grow about 0.5% higher than the target at the beginning of the year.
For the growth scenario in 2026, the Minister recommended continuing to review the growth targets and indicators of sectors, fields and localities, ensuring the country's economic growth in 2026 reaches 10% or more.
Regarding solutions for the growth scenario, according to the Ministry of Finance, in promoting investment, it is necessary to mobilize investment capital for the whole society in the last 6 months of the year, which is about 111 billion USD, about 3 billion USD higher than the national economic growth scenario of 8%.
Of which, the disbursement of public investment capital in the last 6 months of the year reached about 28 billion USD (equivalent to about 700 trillion VND). Ministries, branches and localities must disburse 100% of the capital plan for 2025 and additional capital allocated in 2025 from increased revenue and savings in state budget expenditure in 2024 (about 152.7 trillion VND).
Private investment is about 60 billion USD, about 3 billion USD higher than the national economic growth scenario of 8%; FDI attraction reaches 18.5 billion USD, realized FDI capital is about 16 billion USD; other investments are about 7 billion USD.
The State Bank proactively adjusts credit growth targets for 2025 (about 16%) if necessary, ensuring credit capital for priority sectors, fields, and projects; effectively directing the implementation of 500 trillion VND packages to lend to businesses to invest in infrastructure and digital technology, credit packages to lend to young people under 35 years old to buy social housing, etc.
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Phan Thi Thang outlined the task of stabilizing and developing the domestic market. Focus on supporting businesses to transform their business on digital platforms.
At the same time, coordinate with functional units to propagate and guide business households in converting business methods and paying taxes to soon stabilize the distribution of goods to consumers.
