A weekly gold survey by an international financial information platform with 17 Wall Street experts shows that there are nearly half of negative forecasts.
Michael Moor, director of MoorAnalytics.com, said he was pessimistic about gold for the week. He explained that, over a long period of time, the uptrend has been warned since August 16, 2018 when prices exceeded the 1,179.7/183 USD/ounce range and since then gold has increased to more than 3,214 USD/ounce. These long-term signals are still maintained.
In the medium term, Michael Moor said that many recent technical milestones have continuously created more upward momentum - each milestone that has passed has pushed prices up from 700 USD to more than 1,200 USD/ounce. All of these medium-term signs are still maintained.
However, in a short time, the signals became more negative. However, he also noted that some other short-term breakouts still created an increase of about 276 USD, and this signal is still effective.
Mr. Adrian Day - Chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management - commented: "There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the US economy, taxes and further interest rate moves. Gold may have to re-evaluate the recent bottom around $3,930/ounce before recovering convincingly. However, if there is an adjustment, it will likely be short and shallow, because the core factors supporting gold are still there."
Meanwhile, Ole Hansen - Director of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank - said that he is optimistic about gold this week, unless the stock market experiences a strong sell-off. The S&P 500 index this week was under significant selling pressure but still maintained the important support zone above 6,600 points.
Hansen believes that in the event of a widespread stock market slump, no asset - other than the Japanese Yen - can avoid short-term selling pressure.
James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, also said he is bullish on gold but has not expected an immediate breakout.
I think the market is entering an accumulation phase, similar to the last two months of last year or the four months since April this year, which led to Powells speech at Jackson Hole and then another erection. I am still leaning towards buying positions because the platform context has not changed much. What is happening now is mainly profit-taking after a very strong increase.
However, this also shows that it is necessary to adjust the strategy: Be more bold when prices move into the support zone and be cautious when approaching resistance, as this week shows, such inspections can cause long-term investors to take profits and lead to quick sell-offs from short-term peaks. So the $4,000/ounce mark remains an important zone for me, and only when gold clearly breaks $3,895/ounce will I consider reducing expectations for the uptrend, he said.
Notable US economic data for the week
Monday: Empire State Production Survey.
Wednesday: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Thursday: Philly FED Production Survey, Weekly Unemployment claims, existing home sales.
Friday: S&P's preliminary PMI, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.
