The accumulation phase is inevitable
In the 2026 precious metals outlook report by Heraeus (a German technology and precious metals corporation), analysts pointed out that gold prices still have room to increase next year, but there may be a period of adjustment and accumulation.
Heraeus described the recent gold rally as too exciting and said that while supporting factors are still present in 2026, after a strong rally, the market is unlikely to avoid a consolidation phase.
The price increase has pushed gold and silver to record highs, while the platinum metals group (PGM) to its highest level in many years has happened too quickly, pushing prices too far in a short time.
Although prices may increase further in the short term, when momentum weakens, a period of accumulation is inevitable. Gold prices have been moving sideways from April to August this year before entering a new uptrend, so the market may need a few months before the uptrend returns. In addition to investment cash flow, the influx of physical metals to the US is also a factor that has a big impact on market liquidity, Heraeus commented.
Heraeus believes that gold will have the most solid price foundation thanks to the continuous buying activities of central banks. Slow interest rates could also support gold prices if inflation remains high and real interest rates fall, said analysts.
Heraeus also warned that the risk of price declines still exists in the precious metals market.
The US bond yield curve reversed more than a year ago, so the possibility of the US economy entering recession in the coming time is likely, in the context of a weakening labor market. If a recession occurs in 2026, the prices of PGM metals will likely be under downward pressure," they said.
Detailed forecast for gold
Heraeus does not expect central banks to slow down gold purchases in the coming time. This year, the amount of gold that central banks buy is still high, although lower than three years ago, when more than 1,000 tons of gold were added to reserves each year.
The trend of de-dollarization in some regions of the world will continue to be the main driver. The World Gold Council's annual survey shows that 43% of central banks believe their gold reserves will increase, and the majority said they will reduce the share of the USD to move to gold or other currencies, the report said.
In contrast, demand for gold jewelry is forecast to continue to be pressured by high prices. In most countries, demand for gold jewelry in 2025 is weakening due to high gold prices. If prices fall deep enough, demand can recover somewhat, but overall, jewelry demand will still be lower than in previous years," Heraeus said.
Heraeus also believes that inflation could remain high for a long time after a budget deal ends the US government shutdown. there is a concern that calculated governance could emerge, as monetary policy is used to keep interest rates low to serve spending and even monetizing public debt, analysts said.
Even with short-term profit-taking, investment demand for gold is still expected to remain strong in 2026. Demand for gold bars and coins continues to increase, while ETFs also net bought an additional 14.7 million ounces this year, after a very modest buy in 2024.
As a result, total global ETF gold holdings have risen 18% to 97.5 million ounces. However, this figure is still below the 2020 peak of 111 million ounces, showing that there is still room for ETF investors to continue to increase their holdings - Heraeus said.
Heraeus predicts gold prices will fluctuate between 3,750 - 5,000 USD/ounce in 2026. The US has so far avoided the recession that the yield curve had predicted, but the labor market is weakening.
The Fed often prioritizes supporting economic growth, so if the labor market continues to be weak, more interest rate cuts may take place, even if inflation remains above the target. This reduces real interest rates - a factor that is often beneficial for gold. However, after a very strong increase in 2025, the market is likely to enter the accumulation phase before the new increase begins" - experts warned.
