Gold prices have continued to fall sharply in recent trading sessions and hit a two-week low last night. However, concerns about global trade and public debt are still flowing into safe-haven assets, helping gold consolidate its position as a safe haven against risks.
A survey by an international news agency with 40 analysts and traders recorded the forecast of a gold price center rate of 3,220 USD/ounce this year, up from 3,065 USD/ounce in the survey three months ago. The forecast for 2026 also increased to 3,400 USD/ounce from the previous 3,000 USD/ounce.
Spot gold prices have risen 27% since the beginning of the year, after setting a record of $3,500/ounce in April as the US and China entered a full-scale trade war, boosting a wave of safe-haven purchases.
The first 6 months of 2025 have proven something that many of us have long believed in. Gold is not just a hedge. It is a signal - David Russell at GoldCore commented, adding that the price of $4,000/ounce by the end of 2026 is completely feasible if concerns about the US fiscal situation continue to increase.
Uncertainty surrounding upcoming trade deadlines with major US partners is strengthening the appeal of gold, while fiscal concerns have been raised after the US President passed the "One Big Beautiful Bill" law, which independent analysts estimate will add $3.3 trillion to national debt.
Gold prices have yet to return to their April record and short-term accumulation is expected to continue as the market has not had a clear boost to restart its rally, said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer.
Most analysts believe that central banks are the pillar of gold price increase, thanks to the long-term trend of diversifying reserves from the dominance of the USD.
In another development, China has increased its gold reserves for 8 consecutive months, while a ECB survey showed that nearly 2/5 central banks cited geopolitical risks when deciding to hold gold.
A multipolar world still exists, leading to central banks' desire to reduce their dependence on the US dollar as a reserve currency and in the extreme scenario, reducing the risk of US sanctions, Menke added.
Silver prices have risen 32% since the beginning of the year, surpassing gold's increase and approaching the $40/ounce mark for the first time in 14 years.
Analysts have raised their 2025 silver price forecast to 34.52 USD/ounce from 33.1 USD in the previous survey, thanks to concerns about US tax policy, signs of shortage in the spot market and the wave of investors looking for alternatives to gold.
The 2026 silver price forecast has also been raised to $38/ounce from $34.58/ounce.
The majority of the recent increase comes from capital flows into exchange-traded funds (ETPs) and if this momentum slows down, silver could become vulnerable even though the market still forecasts a supply deficit this year, according to expert Suki Cooper from Standard Chartered.
