miraculous growth rate
The above assessment was made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the newly published report "Asia - Pacific Economic Prospects" - VNA reported.
The IMF believes 7% is a miraculous growth rate - leading the ASEAN 5 group (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) - when there is a decline in the world economy by 1/3. According to IMF economist Davide furceri, Vietnam is still a bright spot in the region in the recovery process thanks to correct monetary policy, timely fiscal support, and strong external demand in the first half of the year.
A number of policies of the Vietnamese Government have contributed positively to the results of economic activities this year, including the rapid recovery of the Vietnamese economy in the first 9 months of the year, when restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic were lifted.
VNA quoted Ms. Era Dabla- Norris, Assistant Director of the Asia-Pacific Sub-Department, Head of the IMF's Monitoring Delegation to Vietnam - as saying that the growth trend of Vietnam's economy continues to be positively assessed, in the context of the world and the region continuing to be affected by the energy, food and inflation crises.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also commented that "Vietnam is far surpassing the rest of Asia" when considering rapid economic growth, foreign exchange reserves and flexible monetary policy.
WSJ emphasized that in the context of the global economy being sluggish and immersed in worries about recession, inflation, high prices, and many fluctuations, Vietnam still maintains a series of impressive growth indicators.
With this argument, WSJ believes that Vietnam may be among the fastest growing countries in Asia next year. WSJ affirmed that thanks to investment in infrastructure, strong and active trade liberlization and affordable labor costs, Vietnam's production growth momentum remains intact.
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings assessed Vietnam's strong growth prospects reflected in the strong growth prospects in the medium term, lower government debt compared to corresponding countries and good external debt records.
Fitch Ratings forecasts Vietnam to achieve a growth rate of 7.4% this year due to the development of the industrial, construction and service sectors. Foreign direct investment (FDI) will continue to be a factor driving Vietnam's strong medium and long-term growth.
More conservative than Fitch Ratings, a prestigious rating agency, Moody's forecasts Vietnam's economy to grow by 8.5% in 2022. In September, Moody's raised its credit rating of Vietnam to Ba2, Vietnam is the only country in the Asia-Pacific region and is one of four countries worldwide to have been granted a credit rating by Moody's since the beginning of the year.
The key for Vietnam to restart the momentum of the economy
These positive reviews stem from the fact that Vietnam has made a "special" transformation after the COVID-19 pandemic, becoming a bright spot attracting investment and foreign manufacturers, witnessing an explosion of exports thanks to free trade agreements and the strong development of e-commerce.
According to IMF Era Dabla- Norris, the timely shift in the COVID-19 fight strategy and the complete reopening of the economy in March this year is the key for Vietnam to restart the momentum of the economy after the pandemic.
In addition, appropriate policies applied by the government, such as tax reduction and support for workers in the Socio-Economic Recovery and Development Program, have brought about results.
Low interest rates and adaptive monetary policies allow businesses to quickly return to production when the economy reopens, while cutting environmental taxes and other taxes and fees on petroleum products contributes to reducing the impact of higher world oil prices on Vietnamese households and businesses.
The freezing of some services, including electricity, healthcare and education, also contributes to keeping inflation under control.
Meanwhile, Greg Poling, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), commented that business-friendly policies and political stability are factors that give Vietnam an advantage over other countries in the region when multinational companies seek to diversify production locations.
According to Mr. Poling, Vietnam is not the only destination for multinational companies, but it is perhaps the "most successful place". This is reflected in the fact that Apple, Google and Samsung are all promoting their first activities in Vietnam. Foxconn and Luxshare Precision Industry - two of Apple's most important suppliers - are currently negotiating to produce Apple Watch and Macbook in Vietnam.
Notably, Vietnam's digital economy has had a breakthrough development after the pandemic. In the seventh Southeast Asian digital economy report with the theme "Overcoming the whole wave, reaching out to the sea of opportunities", Google, Temasek and Bain & Company said that in 2022, Vietnam's digital economy will have the fastest growth rate in Southeast Asia with the total value of goods (GMV) expected to increase by 28%, from 18 billion USD last year to 23 billion USD, thanks to the 26% growth of e-commerce compared to the same period in 2021.
Ms. Stephanie Davis, Vice President of Google Asia-Pacific, in charge of Southeast Asia, affirmed that the high-quality domestic workforce in the technology sector and the increasing penetration of digital services in urban and rural areas, creating a solid foundation for Vietnam's digital development in the future.
International institutions and organizations also note that in addition to positive signals, the Vietnamese economy is still unable to avoid challenges and risks such as inflationary pressures, aging labor trends, and the influence of external factors such as supply chain disruptions, central banks increasing interest rates, economic recession, declining demand and geopolitical tensions.
