Two sources familiar with the export plans told Reuters that Russian gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline (or Nord Stream 1 to distinguish it from Nord Stream 2) are expected to be restarted on time on July 21 when periodic maintenance is completed.
The pipeline - which accounts for more than a third of Russia's natural gas exports to the EU - has been suspended for 10 days of annual maintenance, starting on July 11.
Sources say Nord Stream is expected to resume operations on schedule, but at a capacity about 160 million cubic meters of gas per day is lower.
Russian oil and gas giant Gazprom reduced gas exports via Nord Stream to 40% capacity last month, citing that a Nord Stream pipeline turbine maintained by Siemens Energy in Canada was not returned on time.
"Gazprom will return to its supply level before July 11", one of the sources said the volume of gas expected to be transported via Nord Stream from July 21.
In response to this positive news, the Netherlands' standard monthly gas contract fell 3% on July 19. Earlier in the day, the contract was traded higher after the Wall Street Journal reported that the European Commission did not expect the pipeline to be restarted after the maintenance period.
Russia asks to be a reliable supplier
Nord Stream (Northern Stream) runs under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, and has been the focus of attention since Russia launched a military campaign in Ukraine on February 24.
The West accused Russia - the world's largest gas exporter and the second largest crude oil supplier - of weaponsing energy supplies. Russia has denied the accusations, saying it is a reliable energy supplier.
Owner and operator
Nord Stream is majority owned by Gazprom and is the main route for Russian gas to Germany.
Gazprom has 51% stake and the remaining stake is held by four Western partners: Germany's EONGn and Wintershall Dea have 15.5% respectively, and France's Engie and the Netherlands' Gasunie have 9% respectively.
The project's partners have pumped in 30% of their equity and received the remaining 70% from loans from banks and export credit institutions.
Nord Stream AG, a Swiss-based company that handles transportation, engineering, legal and environmental issues, does not own any assets or gas in it.
Gazprom Export handles shipments through contracts with European energy companies and gas traders.
Nord Stream's importance
There are other major gas pipelines from Russia to Europe, but the volume of transportation through these pipelines has been gradually declining.
The Yamal-Yamal pipeline, which previously transported gas from Russia to Europe, has been flowing eastward from Germany to Poland since the beginning of this year.
Gas via pipelines running from Russia to Europe via Ukraine has also decreased after Ukraine stopped a route of the pipeline in May, a tool of Russian control.
The impact if Nord Stream stops operating
If Nord Stream does not resume operations on July 21, Europe will not have enough gas supplies for peak winter months.
Europe's gas reserves are currently only 64% complete, while the target is 80% by November 1.
German magazine Focus said that Uniper had to use gas reserves to complete delivery contracts when Nord Stream temporarily stopped supply completely during the maintenance period.
If Nord Stream stops completely exporting after the maintenance period on July 21, EU gas reserves will only reach about 65% before winter, leading to a real risk that the continent could run out of gas during the heating season, adding to the risk of market instability where gas prices are already high, said analysts at Rystad.
Gas prices in Europe have been three or four times higher than a year ago and have contributed greatly to inflation and political tensions.
Affected companies
A key pipeline for Russian gas transit, many major European gas buyers with contracts with Gazprom have been cut off after Nord Stream's capacity was reduced to 40%. These companies include Austria's OMV, Italy's ENI, Germany's Uniper and RWE.
Russia has cut gas to Bulgaria, Finland, Poland, Denmark, Dutch company Gasterra and Shell for contracts with Germany, after all rejected the Kremlin's request to switch to rubles.
