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When put into operation, Nord Stream 2 will bring natural gas from Russia to Europe. The pipeline runs from Russia directly to Germany across the Baltic Sea, parallel to Nord Stream 1. Experts say Nord Stream 2 will not significantly increase Russia's natural gas exports to Europe, but it could redirect - meaning more natural gas will flow directly to Germany and could bypass other existing pipelines running through other European countries, most notably Ukraine.
The US considers the pipeline a geopolitical tool of Russia to undermine Europe's energy security and national security. Ukraine also sees this in the same direction and wants the gas pipeline to stop operating.
With Nord Stream 2 operational, Russia will no longer have to pay transportation fees for gas transit through Ukraine, and both Russia and Europe will have little dependence on the pipeline running through Ukraine.
Germany has considered Nord Stream 2 a necessary commercial project for German industry and wants it to come into operation. Some European countries agree, others do not, or really do not want to say too much in any way.
Controversial pipeline
Before Nord Stream 2, there was Nord Stream 1. Before Nord Stream 1, there were Soviet gas pipelines, later Russia, to Europe. Among these pipelines, one ran through Ukraine, during its peak, transiting up to 80% of Russian gas to Europe. But in 2005, Germany and Russia signed a deal to build Nord Stream 1 - a $6 billion pipeline across the Baltic Sea.
In 2015, a few years after the pipeline was originally opened, Germany signed a Nord Stream 2 construction agreement to expand capacity along the route. But it has been widely criticized: The pipeline is wholly owned by Gazprom, Russia's state gas company. This second pipeline will continue to help Russia avoid paying for gas transit fees through Ukraine.
Prime Minister Angela Merkel defended Nord Stream 2 as a commercial project, which was much needed in Germanys key industrial sector. As experts have said at that time and say to this day, it is certainly a commercial project, but anything related to a Russian state gas company would be political.
Vox quoted Stefan Meister, a member of the German Council on Foreign Relations, as saying that Germany also looks at Russia through a slightly different lens and has a heritage attached to Russia. Berlin has traditionally tried to balance its commitments with its Western allies with the desire for fruitful relations with Moscow, and often seen business and economic interests as a highlight for cooperation.
The idea that this is a "commercial project" is not meaningless. Some European companies could benefit from the project or lose if it fails, especially at this stage.
All of that has helped build Nord Stream 2, despite opposition from the US and other allies, which say it will make Germany and Europe more dependent on Russian natural gas and will therefore be more vulnerable to Moscow.
The rest of Europe is also divided similarly with very legitimate concerns about the pipeline being a leverage for Russia, along with the fact that some countries will benefit financially from Nord Stream 2, while others will not.
Nord Stream 2 becomes a highlight in Ukraine's future
Ukraine, a country stuck in the middle and its fate is likely to intertwine with the fate of Nord Stream 2. Ukraine also strongly opposes Nord Stream 2 because it will suffer the most if the gas pipeline comes into operation.
Ukraine sees this as a major threat. Russia has paid Ukraine approximately $2 billion in gas transit fees through its territory.
But it is important to consider pipeline infrastructure as its own insurance policy for both Russia and Europe. Russia wants to sell gas to Europe; Europe needs to buy Russian gas. As long as Ukraine plays a gas transit role, Russia can at least consider the situation in Ukraine.
The US and Germany recognize this. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has previously said that gas must continue to flow through Ukraine after Nord Stream 2, and incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated that view in December.
In a July agreement between the US and Germany, the two sides agreed that it was necessary to continue gas transit through Ukraine until 2024, in the interests of Ukraine and Europe. The deal also promised Germany would seek sanctions if Russia used energy as a weapon.
Nord Stream 2 causes division in the US
The US has warned of tough sanctions, but Biden administration officials also see Nord Stream 2 as a bargaining chip.
Some US politicians and experts believe that the best way to block the pipeline and prevent Russia is to sanction Nord Stream 2 right now. This is the reason why Congressman Ted Cruz and other Republicans have pushed for restoring sanctions on Nord Stream, but the bill was not passed by the US Senate because it faced opposition from members of the Democratic Party.
The Biden administration believes that imposing sanctions now would mean the US would lose an effective deterrent, unlike hostage taking.
