According to the Water Resources Scenario in the Mekong River basin in the dry season of 2025 - 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment believes that the flow rate to the plains in the dry season this year is quite positive. The flow from the Hoan Kiem Sea is forecast to reach about 47 billion m3, higher than the average of many years and 20 - 21% higher than the same period in 2024 - 2025. The total flow at Kratie station from November 2025 to May 2026 is estimated at 100 - 112 billion m3, an increase of 10 - 25% compared to the average of many years and the same period last year.
The total amount of water flowing into the Mekong Delta at Tan Chau and Chau Doc stations from November 2025 to May 2026 is from 150 - 170 billion m3, higher than the average of many years and about 10 - 25% higher than the same period in 2024 - 2025. In addition, there is a possibility of unseasonal rain during the dry months.
According to the scenario, saline intrusion in the 2025 - 2026 dry season is assessed to be approximately the average of many years and lower than in 2024 - 2025. In general, the basic water source will meet the needs of water use for daily life, social security, economy and environmental protection, the area of salinity intrusion has been partly controlled by salinity barrier works.
However, the risk of local water shortage can still occur in some localities, especially some end-of-source communes in provinces such as Tay Ninh, Dong Thap, Vinh Long, Ca Mau, mainly due to salinity intrusion and the system of irrigation works and the system of centralized water supply works have not been completed synchronously.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment recommends that for areas at risk of local water shortage (Tay Ninh, Dong Thap, Vinh Long, Ca Mau), it is necessary to develop a response plan according to each shortage level; convert the crop and crop structure; study and combine the exploitation of surface water, groundwater and rainwater, increase rainwater storage; invest in the construction of water regulation and storage works, especially in areas with water shortage and ethnic minorities.
According to statistics, the demand for water exploitation in the Mekong River basin from November 2025 to May 2026 increased by about 0.7% compared to the same period in 2024 - 2025. The entire basin has 1,933 centralized water supply works, with an exploitation demand of about 3.02 million m3/day and night for daily life, industry and services. The demand for water for agriculture is estimated at 24.5 billion m3, highest in January - February in Dong Thap and Tay Ninh (area N3), lowest in May in Ca Mau, Tay Ninh, Vinh Long, Dong Thap and Can Tho City (area M317). An Giang is the locality that uses the most water, concentrated in January - February, while Can Tho City uses the least water, mainly in May.
