In particular, the Ministry of Health proposes that each couple and individual decide on the time of birth, the number of children and the distance between births. This proposal aims to overcome the situation of low birth rates and significant differences in birth rates between regions and subjects.
According to the Ministry of Health, Vietnam's birth rate is among the top 5 lowest countries in Southeast Asia. The national birth rate is tending to decrease below the replacement level, from 2.11 children/woman in 2021 to 2.01 in 2022. This index continues to fall as it is down to 1.96 children/woman in 2023 and 1.91 in 2024 - the lowest in history and is forecast to continue to fall in the following years.
It is forecasted that the birth rate will continue to decrease, by 2039 Vietnam will end the golden population period, in 2042 the population size of working-age people will peak and after 2054 the population will start to grow negatively. At that time, the consequences of a prolonged low birth rate led to a shortage of labor force, a decrease in population size, accelerated population aging, and negatively impacted socio-economic development.
In the past two decades, the birth rate in urban areas has fallen below the replacement level, fluctuating around 1.5-18.8 children/woman; the birth rate in rural areas is always higher than the replacement level, at 2.2-2,3 children/woman. However, in 2023, the birth rate in rural areas decreased to 2.07 children, below the replacement birth rate, the lowest level ever.
Explaining this proposal, the Ministry of Health said that some Party committees and authorities at all levels have not fully recognized the difficulties, complexities and long-term nature of population work, especially the shift of policy focus from family planning to population and development. Many places are still heavily affected by gender discrimination. The Population Ordinance issued in 2003 has many new issues that have not been regulated, are not strictly implemented, and are not fully institutionalized, including regulations on limiting the right to decide on the number of children.
Experts say the reason for the low birth rate is that young people currently tend to marry late, have children late, and even not want to have children. This trend comes from many causes, mainly economic pressure and child-rearing costs, especially in the context of high living prices and unstable income.
Facing problems with fertility rates, especially low fertility rates, the Ministry of Health recognizes this as an urgent problem that must be resolved soon. Recently, many policies have been abolished or proposed to encourage childbirth, most recently the Politburo requesting not to discipline party members who have third children.
Many policies to support finance and welfare for families with children, such as child allowance; housing support, preferential home loans for families with young children... are also being considered.
