Thailand's tourism recovery ambitions after the pandemic are facing major obstacles as the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupts global routes and affects tourist psychology.
In the past year, the number of international visitors to Thailand decreased by 7%, to 32.9 million. Tourism industry leaders warn that if the conflict lasts, tourism revenue could fall by up to 29 billion baht (about 885 million USD).
The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran forces many airlines to avoid dangerous airspaces, forcing flights to circle further. This significantly increases operating costs, especially fuel costs.
Mr. Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, Chairman of the Thai Hotel Association, said that having to fly around is directly increasing travel costs for tourists.
Thai Airways has announced a ticket price increase of 10-15%, and many other international airlines have also applied similar increases.
He warned that when total travel costs increase, tourists can choose other destinations instead of Thailand.
In the first week of March 2026, after the first military attacks, the number of international visitors to Thailand decreased by 8.9% compared to the previous week.
Most notably, passengers from Europe and the Middle East, markets that often fly transit through transit hubs such as Dubai, have decreased by 18%.
These markets are particularly important for destinations such as Phuket, where the hotel industry warns of a sharp decline.
According to data from the Thai Ministry of Tourism and Sports, from January 1 to March 11, 2026, the country welcomed more than 7.4 million international visitors, down 4.4% compared to the same period in 2025.
Retail group Central Retail forecasts that profits this year may decrease by about 1%, due to increased operating costs and reduced number of tourists.
Thai Chamber of Commerce offers a damage scenario:
If the conflict lasts 1-3 months: damage is about 9-20 billion baht (about 275 - 610 million USD).
If it lasts 6 months: damage could be up to 29 billion baht (885 million USD).
Tourism accounts for about 20% of Thailand's GDP, so the country's government is quickly adjusting its strategy.
Ms. Natreeya Taweewong, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, said that although the number of visitors per day is still over 100,000 people, the tourism industry is focusing on stronger promotion in markets less affected by conflict, such as China, India and Malaysia.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand has also strengthened promotional campaigns targeting Gen Z and families, while promoting the "Mekong Riverside" tourism initiative in seven provinces to promote local cultural experiences.
