Thailand's tourism industry is at risk of a sharp decline as ongoing conflict in the Middle East threatens to reduce global travel demand and push costs up.
According to Ms. Natthriya Thaweevong - Permanent Secretary of the Thai Ministry of Tourism and Sports - quoted by Bloomberg, the number of international visitors could decrease by up to 3 million if the war lasts for 6 months.
If this scenario occurs, the total number of international visitors to Thailand may only be about 28 million, equivalent to the level of 2023 and much lower than the target of 35 million set by the government.
This decrease could cause the economy to lose about 150 billion baht (equivalent to 4.5 billion USD), equivalent to about 10% of Thailand's international tourism revenue in 2025.
Prolonged conflict has caused many airspace areas in the Middle East to be closed, forcing airlines to change routes or cancel flights on major routes between Europe and Asia, thereby increasing travel costs to Thailand.
Faced with the decrease in the number of international visitors, high-end hotels in Thailand are implementing many deep discount programs to attract domestic tourists.
Even in a more optimistic scenario - when the conflict ends earlier - Thailand could still lose 1 to 2 million visitors, according to industry sources.
In the period from January 1 to March 22, 2026, Thailand welcomed about 8.54 million international visitors, down about 3% compared to the same period last year.
In 2025, the total number of international visitors to this country reached 32.97 million, down 7.23% compared to the previous year, due to the impact of many factors such as earthquakes in Myanmar, serious floods and border conflicts with Cambodia.
To support the tourism industry, the Thai government is considering domestic stimulus measures, including a tax deduction policy for tourism spending.
In addition, other proposals are also being considered such as temporary tax reductions or debt rescheduling support for hotel businesses, along with fuel allocation measures to ensure the operation of tourist cars.
