Apartment prices are pushed up according to investors' profit expectations
Apartment prices and many housing products are still anchored at high levels, especially in high-end self-positioning projects. In the context that real purchasing power has not kept up with profit expectations, while interest rate pressure and capital costs are increasing, the real estate market is entering a stage of forced differentiation and adjustment.
Talking to Lao Dong Newspaper, Mr. Nguyen Chi Thanh - General Director of Ho Tay International Building Company analyzed that an easily noticeable issue currently is that the main products are in the hands of about the top 10-20 investors. The source of goods concentrated in this group makes the selling price level often set in a mutual reference manner between projects.
However, the market price in essence does not lie in the expectations of investors but is still decided by buyers with real housing needs. Because no matter how high a profit target is set, the product will eventually have to be sold to buyers to live in or exploit for rent. "People with real housing needs are the ones who decide the market price," Mr. Thanh emphasized.
According to this person, with the current high price level plus pressure from bank interest rates, the market will definitely have adjustments. At the current cost of capital level, investors cannot continue to hoard goods for a long time just to wait for a suitable buyer, and cash flow is the important factor.
Looking at the supply structure, the current problem is not only in the high-end segment accounting for a large proportion but also in the fact that the market is being confused between the concept of truly high-end products and many projects self-positioning themselves as high-end. With truly high-end products, investors have clearly identified the target customer group, so they are not too worried about output.
Meanwhile, most of the market is carrying the mentality "that guy sold 10, so I also have to sell 10", meaning that the expectation of profit is pushed too high, leading to the fact that every project is labeled high-end and believes that it must be sold at a very high price.
Many projects are not really high-end in reality, especially the location is not unique, but still set high prices. When the market does not accept it, it is forced to adjust. In fact, there have been many projects that have maintained a price for many years but still cannot be sold, even unsold for 5-10 years. This shows that truly high-end products have their own segments, and expectations of profits exceeding absorption capacity will sooner or later be filtered out by the market.
Strong market differentiation
Regarding the developments of Vietnam's real estate in 2026, Mr. Nguyen Chi Thanh said that the market will continue to have very clear differentiation. This means that investing in this period requires a completely different mindset than before.
If only buying and reselling within the local area, investors will definitely have to rethink. Because the well-invested products today are not only aimed at domestic customers but also aimed at welcoming international investors.
The investment story is therefore no longer to spend individual money on a project in that area, but to look towards satellite cities, places with development momentum and connectivity. Investors are forced to aim for a long-term strategy instead of just buying and selling in a short time.
On the other hand, real estate products in the market today are different from before when the segment accounting for a large proportion is high-end real estate. With this segment, the number of people who can buy immediately is not large, so the story of buying and reselling to quickly take profits is no longer as easy as before.
Previously, many people thought that just selling would be more profitable than depositing in the bank, but now it's not that simple," Mr. Thanh said.
Another pressure is that the real estate market is developing faster than the capital financing capacity of banks. Credit room is limited, so from investors to investors, they all have to look for other financial sources.
If you want to invest successfully and only rely on bank loans, it is still a short-term investment type and very difficult to achieve efficiency in the current context. With the current developments, the market will only have room for long-term investment strategies that are suitable for actual absorption.
