Scenarios that may occur in the Premier League finals

The Premier League 2025-2026 will close this weekend, but before the closing round, many important races have not yet been decided, from a European cup spot to a relegation ticket.

Arsenal officially won the championship for the first time after 22 years of waiting, while Manchester City, Manchester United and Aston Villa are also guaranteed a Champions League spot next season. In the opposite direction, Wolves and Burnley have been relegated early. However, the battle for the remaining positions is still extremely tense.

The focus is on the European race, where Bournemouth still nurtures hopes of winning a Champions League spot for the first time in history. Coach Andoni Iraola's team is currently 3 points behind Liverpool before the final round and needs to beat Nottingham Forest, while hoping Brentford will beat The Kop with a large enough gap to equalize the goal difference.

Although the opportunity is very slim, Bournemouth is almost certain to play football in Europe next season. According to supercomputer Opta, they finished in sixth place in 85% of simulations. Meanwhile, Liverpool only needs not to lose to Brentford to ensure a Champions League spot.

A noteworthy detail is that Aston Villa's Europa League title could make the race more complicated. If Liverpool beats Brentford and Villa loses to Man City, the Premier League will have another Champions League spot for the sixth-placed team.

Brighton currently holds a great advantage in the Europa League race. Fabian Hurzeler's team only needs to beat Man United to definitely have a ticket to the European Cup. However, if they lose points, they can completely be surpassed by Chelsea or Brentford. According to Opta, Brighton has a 91.1% chance of finishing the season in the European Cup group.

Chelsea also still has a chance after an important victory against Tottenham in the middle of the week. If they defeat Sunderland in the final round, The Blues will definitely participate in European cups next season. However, their chances of participating in the Europa League or Conference League also depend on Brighton's result. Notably, the supercomputer only gives Chelsea 67.1% chance of winning a European cup ticket.

Brentford and Sunderland are also hopeless. Brentford needs at least a positive result against Liverpool and is waiting for Chelsea or Brighton to stumble. Sunderland could even win a European ticket if they defeat Chelsea at the Stadium of Light and other results go smoothly.

Conversely, Newcastle, Everton and Fulham have officially run out of opportunities to compete for a European cup spot.

At the bottom of the rankings, the relegation battle is now just a story between Tottenham and West Ham. The 1-2 defeat to Chelsea makes Spurs uncertain about safety. However, Roberto De Zerbi's team still has a great advantage. Just not losing to Everton in the final round, Tottenham is almost certain to stay in the league due to having a superior goal difference compared to West Ham. In case Spurs fail, West Ham will have to defeat Leeds United to take the lead.

However, Opta still assesses West Ham as a team with a much higher risk of relegation, with a probability of up to 85.5%. Tottenham only fell to the Championship in 14.5% of the simulated times.

With a series of uncertain scenarios, the final round of the Premier League promises to be a chaotic and dramatic closing day.