At the end of the first 4 months of 2026, the VN-Index increased by 69.6 points, equivalent to an increase of 3.9%, closing the last day of April at 1,854.1 points.In particular, this upward momentum is not consensual, but mainly led by some large-cap stocks, while most of the market has a clear differentiation with the central role supporting the market being the large Vingroup duo including VIC and VHM and some other pillar codes.
Liquidity is a noteworthy point when going against the upward momentum of the index.The total market trading value in April decreased to the lowest level since the beginning of the year.On average, the 5-week upward momentum before the holidays only reached about 26,500 billion VND/session, lower than even the bottom-fishing period.This shows that large cash flow is still cautious, especially in the context of a shortened trading week and more time to establish a clearer trend in May.
The current context of the market shows that trying to accurately predict how many points VN-Index will rise or fall is a high-risk effort and does not bring much practical value to investment decisions.
A more important issue is that the general index may no longer fully reflect the "health" of the investor portfolio.VN-Index is currently still heavily influenced by some large-cap stocks, especially the Vin group of stocks.
After a period of strong growth, this group has anchored in the high capitalization zone, while the room to repeat the explosive growth rate like 2025 is no longer easy, especially when the international market still contains many unpredictable variables.
Therefore, experts recommend that investors be especially vigilant about the "green shell, red core" state.The index may go sideways or increase slightly thanks to the pulling force from a few pillar stocks, but most stocks on the exchange are weakening.
If investors are too engrossed in forecasting VN-Index scores, they are likely to fall into a "psychological trap" when looking at the board, thereby making inaccurate buying and selling decisions.
According to Mr. Nguyen Duc Khang, Head of Pinetree Securities Analysis Department, cash flow after the holidays is likely not to spread out and will enter the "find gold in sand" game, in which investors will choose more carefully between industry groups and each specific stock.
First of all, the pillar stock group, especially the bluechips that have led the index in the past, may need a "rest" period.After a period of strong growth, many large-cap stocks have anchored in higher price zones, making short-term growth room no longer too attractive.
Meanwhile, cash flow may shift more to the midcap group.This expert assesses that this is a group of stocks with a moderate capitalization scale, not requiring too much money to create a price breakthrough.In particular, businesses with their own stories such as divestment, restructuring, M&A, expanding business operations or positive profit changes may become the focus of money attraction in the coming period.
Another noteworthy point is the emergence of non-financial stocks.According to Q1/2026 business data, the profit growth of many businesses in the manufacturing, export and service sectors is somewhat more prominent than the financial sector such as banking and securities.This may be a "low zone" for investors to hunt for stocks with good fundamentals, clear profit prospects but valuation still at a reasonable level.
Mr. Huynh Anh Huy, Director of Industry Analysis - Kafi Securities, said that the promising industry groups in the second half of 2026 are the construction and materials group thanks to directly benefiting from key infrastructure projects. At the same time, legal removals and capital clearance will create momentum for real estate recovery, thereby helping the banking group improve asset quality and credit growth.
This resonance effect, if diễn ra đúng kịch bản, will create a wave spreading positively to other supporting industry groups, helping the stock market form a solid support against the reverse winds from the world," Mr. Huynh Anh Huy stated his point of view.
