After an 8-week consecutive increase and setting a historical peak around the 1,920 point zone, VN-Index turned around and adjusted sharply, pulling the index back below the 1,880 point mark. The VN-Index's turn around and sharp decline after setting a historical peak is the result of many combined pressures.
First of all, there is proactive selling pressure after the market anchors in the high price zone, while May is a period of relatively lack of new support information and domestic cash flow tends to take short-term profits.
In addition, the weakening of the pillar stock group also creates great pressure on the index. Another pressure comes from foreign investors' transactions. The prolonged net selling trend of foreign investors is no longer simply a short-term action, but reflects the process of global portfolio restructuring.
In the context of more cautious cash flow and market breadth not really spreading, the question that investors are interested in is which point area can activate demand to return and which industry groups are still promising in the coming period.
Analysts from Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Company said that the current decline is still technically necessary and healthy adjustment in a long-term upward trend, not enough data to conclude that the market has entered the stage of comprehensive peak distribution. The market needs a "shed" and re-accumulation phase to establish a more solid new price base.
An analysis group from Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company (SHS) offers a more cautious perspective, saying that VN-Index is signaling the end of the short-term uptrend and moving to accumulation. According to SHS, the 1,900 point zone is currently becoming a strong resistance for the market, while the support zone is close to 1,850 points.
If it cannot soon rebound to the 1,900 point mark, VN-Index is at risk of deeper correction to the 1,800 point zone. SHS also warned that the market is facing the risk of forming a short-term peak when VN-Index has repeatedly failed before the old peak of 1,920-1,940 points established at the beginning of the year.
Market quality is weakening, profitability is no longer as high as in the previous period. Investor sentiment has also become more cautious as many short-term positions are starting to face loss-cutting pressure," SHS assessed.
Although the short-term market fluctuates strongly, some assessments still suggest that the basic foundation of the market is quite positive. According to statistics from VNDirect Research, the profit in Q1/2026 of enterprises on HoSE increased by 50% compared to the same period, while the P/E (total capitalization/total profit after tax) valuation of VN-Index is currently at about 13.8 times, lower than the 10-year average.
Industry groups recording strong profit growth include real estate, oil and gas, retail and basic resources. This is considered a medium-term support factor for the market if cash flow returns more stable in the near future.
When the market enters the differentiation and re-evaluation phase, Mirae Asset experts believe that the most suitable strategy for investors is not to try to predict VN-Index, but to focus on intrinsic value and asset structure management.
First of all, investors need to prioritize the financial health of the portfolio, maintain a reasonable cash ratio to be ready to disburse when opportunities appear in attractive price ranges. During the market adjustment period, using high financial leverage may be a mistake, because capital cost pressure easily forces investors to sell at a loss when the market diễn biến bất lợi.
Some industry groups are assessed to have positive business results prospects and benefit from policies, including retail, state-owned banking and oil and gas. However, in the context that cash flow has not spread strongly, stock selection needs to be made selectively, prioritizing businesses with real foundations instead of chasing short-term market uptrends.
