Rising world demand and opportunities for Vietnam's rice export
According to information from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), the Indonesian National Food Agency (Bapanas) said that this country imported 2.2 million tons of rice in the period from January to May 2024 and plans to import an additional 2.1 million tons from June to December 2024. Besides importing rice, purchasing rice from local farmers is still the top priority to provide rice for the national rice warehouse.
“Information shows that Indonesia may import up to 4.3 million tons of rice this year if the output of the current rice crop does not meet expectations due to drought, floods or pests. This is an opportunity for Vietnamese rice export businesses, because Vietnam is one of the countries with the world's top rice quality" - Mr. Vu Tuan Anh - CEO of GLE Company commented.
According to Mr. Nguyen Van Nhat - General Director of Hoang Minh Nhat Joint Stock Company: "Every year this country alone can import 4-5 million tons of rice, it is forecast that this demand will also be stable in the long term."
Sharing with Lao Dong reporter, Mr. Vu Tuan Anh added that from now until the end of the year, the opportunity to export rice to the Philippine market will also improve. The Philippines' total rice imports in 2024 could reach over 4 million tons, even up to 4.5 million tons, higher than previously forecast.
“The Philippines mainly imports rice from Vietnam, the amount of Vietnamese rice in this market accounts for 85%. In the first 6 months of 2024 alone, the amount of Philippine rice imported from Vietnam has reached over 1.7 million tons and this demand from now until the end of the year will continue to be stable" - Mr. Vu Tuan Anh informed.
Tan Long Group Joint Stock Company (Hanoi) is also confident that from now until the end of the year it will export over 400,000 tons of rice.
Statistics from the General Department of Customs show that from the beginning of the year to mid-July 2024, Vietnam has exported over 4.8 million tons of rice, earning nearly 3.1 billion USD. In the first 15 days of July 2024 alone, Vietnam exported 290,035 tons of rice with a value of 177 million USD, an increase of 15% in volume and 30% in value compared to the same period last year. The average rice export price also increased by 12% over the same period, reaching 612.3 USD/ton.
Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Nam - Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association - said: "The demand for rice in the world market is still very large. Traditional markets such as China, the Philippines, and Indonesia are still Vietnam's main import partners. Besides, we are actively expanding into new markets such as Africa and the Middle East."
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, by 2024 the country will be able to produce over 43 million tons of rice, ensuring domestic consumption and export demand. "With 43 million tons of rice, it is enough to meet the needs of storage, seed storage, livestock farming and has enough left over to be able to export about 8 million tons of rice" - Mr. Nguyen Nhu Cuong - Director of the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) confirm.
Export rice prices may decrease, but it is not a cause for concern
According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), the export price of 100% broken rice is at 448 USD/ton, down 12 USD/ton; Standard 5% broken rice remained steady at 559 USD/ton, down 1 USD; 25% broken rice at 537 USD/ton. Although export rice prices are lower than prices at the beginning of the year, compared to the same period last year, they still increased by about 30 - 35%.
Most rice industry traders believe that, if in the second half of 2024, India stops the ban on rice exports, with rice exports accounting for half of the world market, India will be able to "pull" prices. rice reduced compared to current prices. However, up to this point, India has not made a clear move on whether to continue banning or abolishing the white rice export order.
“If India lifts the ban on rice exports, rice prices may decrease at an early stage. However, this price reduction is not worrying, because it is expected that prices will recover in the near future when at the end of the year the demand for imported rice will also increase from traditional Vietnamese customers. With the current rate of rice export maintained, the total rice export turnover in 2024 could reach a record level of 5 billion USD" - Mr. Vu Tuan Anh commented.
