Dengue fever epidemic in Vietnam is changing rapidly, difficult to control
At the Conference, Dr. Ngu Duy Nghia, Head of the Infectious Disease Control Board - Central Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, said that the picture of dengue fever epidemics over the past decade has changed profoundly. Although many countries have applied vector-transmitted disease prevention strategies, the number of cases globally is still increasing sharply. By 2023, dengue fever will be classified as a top 10 health threat in the world, reflecting the increasingly severe burden of disease.
A noticeable change is the expansion of space and travel time. In Vietnam, the North, which has a low incidence rate, has also begun to record an unusual increase. Some localities such as Hai Phong, Tuyen Quang, Son La have experienced epidemics with much higher cases than the average of previous years, showing that the epidemic model is changing.
Another notable trend is the shift in the age of illness. The rate of adults with dengue fever has increased significantly, especially in large cities. This reflects changes in living environment, population density, urbanization rate and population movement, affecting the truyen rule of dengue virus.
Dr. Ngu Duy Nghia said that although the health sector has implemented many measures such as Langur killing, mosquito monitoring and community communication, disease control is still very difficult because the exact time of outbreak cannot be predicted. The appearance of the vaccine brings expectations, but it is necessary to conduct more in-depth research on its effectiveness, safety and vulnerability in Vietnam.
Applying a forecasting model in controlling dengue fever
According to MSc. Dr. Do Kien Quoc, Pasteur Institute of Ho Chi Minh City, the epidemic model is becoming an important approach in the context of dengue fever continuing to be a burden of public health. This is a new field in Vietnam but is expected to create a big step forward in epidemic monitoring.
Doctor Do Kien Quoc believes that dengue fever in Vietnam is affected by many overlapping factors: extreme climate change; drought and salinity make people store more water; rapid urbanization; four types of Dengue virus circulate together; mosquito and lung index is always high. These factors create a favorable environment for widespread, annual outbreaks and cause economic and social losses.
Currently, the health sector uses two groups of strategies: epidemic response and proactive prevention. However, both have limitations. When treated based on cases, 6080% of infected people without symptoms continue to spread silently. When the case was detected, the virus had been circulating in the community for 46 days, causing measures such as spraying chemicals or killing mosquito larvae to only slow down the spread but not prevent the outbreak.
Proactive prevention models such as collaborators or schools also only cover 35% of communes due to resource limitations, making it difficult to maintain them regularly.
From that reality, Dr. Quoc emphasized the need to switch to an early warning system based on case data, meteorology, hydrology and social factors.
The Pasteur Institute of Ho Chi Minh City is developing three models: EWS, DMOS and iDengue, capable of forecasting from 12 weeks to 3 months in advance. These models help the health sector isolate risks early, deploy proactive measures instead of waiting for the epidemic to spread.
