In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF forecasts Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.4 percent in 2025, up slightly by 0.1 percentage points from its previous forecast in October 2024. The forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 1.2 percent.
The IMF explained the adjustment based on stronger-than-expected Russian economic data. “We have received data that shows a more positive economic situation,” IMF economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told RIA Novosti news agency.
Last month, IMF Communications Director Julie Kozak also stressed that Russia’s economic growth was driven by “strong growth in private consumption and rapid wage growth,” adding that “robust business investment” was providing significant support to the economy.
The IMF credited energy export diversification and domestic fiscal measures as key factors in maintaining the strength of the Russian economy, despite Western sanctions.
The World Bank (WB) in its January Global Economic Prospects report also forecast that Russia's GDP will increase by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026.
Russia's Economic Development Ministry expects growth of 2.5% this year, while the Central Bank of Russia forecasts 0.5-1.5%.
Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and sanctions, the IMF’s upgraded growth forecast is a positive signal for Moscow. These figures also show a solid recovery of the Russian economy, thanks to flexible domestic adjustment policies and the ability to adapt to global market fluctuations.
