Data from Lloyd's List analysts shows that more than 1,260 ships have accepted the risk from Houthi forces when passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in March.
This is the highest level since January 2024, when Houthi commanders increased attacks on ships passing through a 32km wide strait between Yemen in the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti in Africa after Israel's military campaign in Gaza.
This strait is a mandatory transit point for ships traveling between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal. Bab el-Mandeb recorded a 66% increase in the number of oil tankers in March and continued to increase in April.
Expert Richard Meade of Lloyd's List said that this trend reflects the increase in crude oil shipments from the port of Yanbu in the Red Sea of Saudi Arabia. In recent weeks, an average of 3.6 million barrels of crude oil/day have departed from the port of Yanbu, equivalent to about 20% of the oil that left the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz before the Iranian conflict broke out.
Saudi Arabia is increasing exports through Yanbu by an oil pipeline about 1,200km long, built in the 1980s to avoid the "tanker war" during the height of the Iran-Iraq war.
However, operations in the Red Sea also pose their own risks. Although Houthi attacks decreased after the Gaza peace plan was implemented in October, this Iranian-backed force joined the Iranian conflict in March, launching missiles from Yemen into Israel.
Large container shipping lines such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, which cautiously returned to the Suez Canal earlier this year, once again diverted ships around Africa, causing the journey to be extended by 2 weeks.
Meanwhile, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level since the conflict began. Only 35 ships passed through Hormuz in the week up to April 28, less than half of the previous week, in the context of being blockaded by both Tehran and Washington. About 70% of ships passing through Hormuz are related to Iran.
Even when Saudi Arabia shifted its exports to Yanbu and the US increased oil shipping, crude oil supply still decreased by about 9 million barrels per day.
Mr. Meade said that many ship owners whose ships are stranded in the Gulf have almost given up hope of bringing their ships out in the short term due to the current paralysis.
Lloyd's List estimates that even if the Hormuz Strait is reopened tomorrow, oil tanker traffic may not return to normal until at least September. If the strategic sea transport route is mined, the disruption may last until 2027.
Pressure to bring oil out of the Gulf has caused some ships that used to participate in the "dark fleet" transporting oil to Iran and sanctioned countries to be hired to transport goods legally through the Strait of Hormuz. For example, the flag-raised Comoros ship Helga, which had been carrying Venezuelan oil for 5 years, left Basra, Iraq earlier this week, carrying 1.7 million barrels of crude oil.
