The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) predicts that Vietnam will become an aging country by 2036 and a super-aging society by 2049.
According to the Director of the Department of Population (Ministry of Health) Le Thanh Dung, population work still faces many difficulties and challenges such as: For 3 consecutive years, the national birth rate has fallen below the replacement level (2.1 children/woman).
In 2023, it was 1.96 children/woman, and it is estimated that it will decrease to 1.91 children/woman in 2024. This is the lowest decrease in history and the trend is forecast to continue to decrease in the coming time.
According to health experts and managers, Vietnam is currently facing the challenge of a rapidly aging population. The birth rate has fallen below replacement level, putting great pressure on the labor and social security systems in the future.
Therefore, abolishing regulations prohibiting or disciplining third children is intended to create incentives to encourage people to increase birth rates, especially in areas with low birth rates.
Sharing with Lao Dong, Prof. Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu - former Director of the Institute of Population and Social Issues (National Economics University) - said: The Party and the State are very concerned about population issues, and since 1961, they issued Decision No. 216/CP on guided childbirth (ie family planning).
This decision made Vietnam one of the pioneers in the field of family planning and it was not until 2006 that we reached the replacement level of fertility; that is, each couple had an average of 2.1 children.
"This shows that we have successfully prevented population explosion" - Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu commented.
However, the expert also commented that we only have 4 years to maintain the replacement fertility level, and the remaining 14 years are below the replacement fertility level.
"Currently, we still maintain the 2008 Population Ordinance - which stipulates that each couple has the right and obligation to have one or two children. The fact that we still discipline party members who have a third child or more, I think these regulations are no longer suitable for the situation where the birth rate has been low and decreasing for many years" - Mr. Nguyen Dinh Cu assessed.
Sharing the same view, Dr. Luu Hong Minh - former Head of the Department of Sociology and Development (Academy of Journalism and Communication) - said that in the current situation, 1 young worker is supporting 2 elderly people, even 2 elderly people and 1 child. Therefore, it is necessary to soon research, summarize, evaluate and amend policies related to population to suit the development situation of the country.
This is even more important in maintaining and creating a future workforce at the golden age. Otherwise, Vietnam could become an aging country in the near future.
"Obviously we need to take into account the rapidly changing population structure to adapt appropriately," said Dr. Minh.
At the 8th Session of the 15th National Assembly, the Government said it would focus on directing the urgent review of 5 years of implementing Resolution No. 21-NQ/TW on population work; review and propose amendments and supplements to Party regulations and State laws on population policy.
