The housing market, especially the apartment segment in Vietnam, has been continuously heating up in recent times with prices remaining high. Especially in large cities, housing prices increase much faster than people's income, making the dream of settling down increasingly out of reach.
These fluctuations not only affect the ability to access housing but also affect many socio-economic decisions of households, including the birth rate that is decreasing to the lowest level in history.
According to the Vietnam Institute for Real Estate Market Research and Evaluation (VARS IRE), the birth rate in Vietnam has decreased to an all-time low in 2024, after a marked decline from 2021. One of the important reasons for this trend is the increasing housing costs.
VARS IRE data shows that the financial burden of buying a house has increased significantly. In 2014, the average apartment price for a family was 1.75 billion VND, equivalent to 2.6 billion VND by mid-2025 after adjustment according to inflation (average about 3.5%). While the average selling price in 2025 is 5.3 billion VND, 2.7 billion VND higher than the actual conversion value in 2014.
During this period, the total birth rate has also decreased from about 2.09 children/woman to only 1.91 children/woman.
In the period of 2019-2024, the market recorded a sharp increase in housing prices. In Hanoi, apartment prices have increased by more than 70%, while in Ho Chi Minh City, they have increased by nearly 37%. This increase is far beyond the rate of income growth, causing housing to become increasingly out of reach for most young families.
VARS IRE forecasts that in the long term, housing prices are unlikely to fall sharply in urban areas. Housing is becoming an increasingly concentrated asset for a small group of rich people, while the majority of people have difficulty accessing housing, leading to consequences for many aspects of life.
Forecasting the time when housing prices cool down, Ms. Do Thi Thu Hang - Senior Director, Consulting and Research Department, Savills Hanoi said that the story of cooling down housing prices may come from 2026, when the market welcomes many new supply sources, and in 2025, projects launched at high prices will still be unlikely to happen this year.
Savills experts also predict that in the second half of 2025 to 2027, 58,100 apartments from 58 projects will be launched on the market. This helps relieve the hunger for supply in the period of 2021-2025 when according to estimates with about 151,000 newly formed households, the city has only provided about 102,000 new apartments and low-rise housing, leading to a shortage of about 49,000 apartments.
In Hanoi alone, in the 2026-2027 period, the market can welcome about 46,600 apartments from 43 projects, mainly outside the central area. This will create pressure to adjust prices, but the adjustment is expected to only occur in places with abundant land funds and unsynchronized infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, the continued upward trend in selling prices is the result of strong money supply growth, the prolonged shortage of primary supply, especially in large cities, along with investors' confidence in the potential for real estate price increases in the future.
This shows that real estate is still an attractive investment and accumulation channel, but also poses challenges in the ability to access housing for people with low average incomes. This trend may continue if legal and supply bottlenecks are not completely removed.
