According to data from Savills Vietnam, in 2024, housing supply from new projects in Ho Chi Minh City is very limited, leading to a significant decrease in primary supply.
This has also been demonstrated through the market report data in 2024 recently released by the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association, which shows that in 2024, Ho Chi Minh City only had 4 commercial housing projects eligible to mobilize capital to bring products to the market, with 1,611 houses and all 100% were luxury houses.
Notably, in 2024, there were no commercial housing or social housing projects allocated land or leased land; only construction permits were granted for 2 commercial housing projects, no social housing projects were granted construction permits.
This reality leads to the consequence that there will be no new housing projects added to the real estate market and there will be no new commercial housing projects or social housing projects eligible for implementation in early 2025.
Ms. Giang Huynh, Director of Research and S22M Savills Vietnam, said that there are 3 main reasons leading to this situation.
First, the legal procedures involved in project approval are fraught with difficulties. The lengthy project implementation timelines have limited the ability to bring new products to market.
This directly affects the primary housing supply in Ho Chi Minh City, causing the decrease to reach the lowest level in the past 5 years.
Currently, Ho Chi Minh City has more than 160 real estate projects that need to be "unstuck" in legal matters.
However, in 2024, only 8 projects were announced to have their planning "resolved". This is only the first step of resolving the problem, and other steps such as construction, land tax, etc. are still needed for the project to be able to start construction and sales.
Second, land and construction costs are rising as investors also face difficulties in accessing clean land.
Even when land is available, rising acquisition and construction costs complicate the financial equation.
Especially from around August to the end of 2025 is the time to focus on the maturity of privately issued corporate bonds after 2 years of extension according to Decree 08/2023/ND-CP with a total value of up to about 180,000 billion VND, the highest in the 3 years 2023-2025.
And real estate businesses have not yet been able to recover their cash flow and business to be able to pay off this bond.
Third, in addition to legal and cost factors, the cautious market sentiment in 2024 is also a notable factor.
Many investors choose the strategy of testing demand before officially launching for sale, leading to a continued limitation of new supply to the market.
Ms. Giang Huynh assessed that in the 2025-2027 period, supply is expected to gradually recover, but the scale will still be modest compared to the 2018-2019 period.
The high-end housing segment (grade A and grade B) will account for more than 50% of future supply, while the affordable housing segment (grade C) continues to be scarce in the inner city.
This means that housing prices are unlikely to fall sharply, especially in central areas and new urban areas that are well connected to the center.
In the context of limited supply in Ho Chi Minh City, the current solution for those who need to buy a house to live in can only come from satellite cities such as Binh Duong, Long An and Dong Nai, which are emerging as potential neighboring markets, to provide more options for home buyers.
In 2024, the supply of apartments in Binh Duong has grown strongly. Selling prices in areas bordering Ho Chi Minh City such as Di An and Thuan An range from 30-40 million VND/m², significantly lower than in Ho Chi Minh City's inner city.
