The Champions League enters its seventh round of qualifying matches this midweek. After that, the tournament has just one more round of matches to go before determining the teams that advance to the knockout round, the play-off group and the elimination group.
Liverpool are currently flying high with the top spot and a perfect record. Meanwhile, PSG, although highly rated, are in the elimination group. Anything can happen in the last two rounds, and there are expected to be countless surprises.
Liverpool have 18 absolute points after 6 matches. Despite losing the remaining 2 matches, Arne Slot's team is still sure of a place in the Top 8 (teams that go straight to the knockout round). Behind Liverpool is Barcelona with 15 points, also almost certain to be in the knockout round regardless of what happens in the last two rounds. According to the prediction of the supercomputer Opta, The Kop has a 99% chance of reaching the knockout round, the number for Blaugrana is 90%.
The teams ranked from 3rd to 8th are all on 13 points. To be sure of being in the Top 8 after the final round of matches, they need to win 6 absolute points in the remaining 2 matches. The teams outside the Top 8 are chasing right behind and have the same 12 points, they also need to win their last 2 matches to hope to decide their ticket to the next round.
If teams are level on points after the qualifying round, goal difference is the first criterion to determine which club is ranked higher. This is followed by goals scored, away goals, wins and away wins.
One of the most fascinating aspects of the qualifying format is the unpredictability of the final round. Of the clubs currently outside the top eight, Dortmund, Bayern, Atletico and Milan are best placed to break through after Matchday 7. They are all on 12 points, one behind Lille, who are eighth in the table and face Liverpool this week. If Lille fail to beat Liverpool, any team currently ranked ninth to 15th will overtake the French side with three points.
According to Opta's prediction, any team ranked 26th or higher can have a chance to finish the qualifying round in the Top 8, although there are teams with this rate of less than 1%. Among the teams currently outside the leading group, Bayern is the representative with the highest chance of finishing the qualifying round with a ticket to the next round (65% according to Opta's prediction).
That is the situation of the group above. As for the eliminated group, after round 6, 3 representatives have been determined including RB Leipzig, Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys. It is not excluded that a 4th team will appear after this week's round.
In the red light group, PSG is the most notable name. Luis Enrique's team is ranked 25th with only 7 points after 6 matches. This midweek, they will face Man City, who are in very good form, at home. On the other side of the battle line, Man City is only 1 point ahead of PSG and if they lose, Pep Guardiola's team could fall into the danger zone.
