In the early morning of October 9, the Indonesian team entered the first match of Group B of the 4th qualifying round of the 2026 World Cup in Asia. The team from the archipelago had a dramatic score chase but eventually accepted a 2-3 defeat against Saudi Arabia.
After the match, Mr. Erick Thohir - President of the Indonesian Football Federation wrote on his personal page: "We have to accept this result. Maybe not what fans expected, but I believe the team fought with all their might. We must immediately stand up and focus on the match against Iraq."
Before the start of the 4th qualifying round, Indonesia was considered a team that suffered many disadvantages when playing away, traveling a lot and playing at an unfavorable schedule.
According to data from World Football Elo Ratings, before meeting Saudi Arabia, the chance of winning a direct ticket for Indonesia (ie to top the group) was only 5%. After the loss to Saudi Arabia, this number dropped to only 1%. This was the result of the opening defeat.
If they want to continue to nurture their hopes of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup, the team from the archipelago must beat Iraq by a large margin. At the same time, they also need Iraq to beat Saudi Arabia so that all 3 teams have 3 points, then the goal difference will decide who will continue.
However, according to data from World Football Elo Ratings, Indonesia's chance of winning against Iraq is only about 22%, while the chance of Iraq overcoming Saudi Arabia is assessed at 32%. These figures reflect the reality that Indonesia is facing on the way to conquering a ticket to the final round.
