Goldman Sachs' model predicts that the Spanish team has a 26% chance of winning the championship, followed by France with 19%, Argentina 14%, Brazil 8% and England 5%.
Goldman Sachs said that their forecasts are mainly based on the Elo rating of teams, an initial performance ranking system designed for chess and later adjusted for football, in addition to additional factors such as possessing attacking talents, recent performance, psychology and geographical location.
The Spanish national team is predicted to have the highest chance of winning the championship because they have the highest Elo ranking, in addition to possessing many talents as well as form before the World Cup. The Spanish team has many stars in the lines such as Pau Cubarsi, Pedri, Rodri, especially Lamine Yamal... Their form in recent years has also been very impressive when the team won EURO 2024, runner-up of the Nations League 2025.
Defending champion Argentina is predicted to have not many chances to defend the title due to the "declining effect of the champion" - according to Goldman Sachs. In addition, reality also shows that since the 1962 World Cup, no team has successfully defended the World Cup title.
France's championship opportunity is also not rated the highest because they are likely to meet Spain in the semi-finals. In the 2025 Nations League semi-finals, Spain once defeated France 5-4. The Bullfighting team also overcame France in the EURO 2024 semi-finals.
Meanwhile, England only has a 5% chance of winning the championship because according to Goldman Sachs' assessment in the past, they often played below expectations. In addition, coach Thomas Tuchel's team is likely to face the host Mexico in Mexico City, thereby facing disadvantages in many factors.
Goldman Sachs said that their model simulates match results by using nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978 and will be updated after each match day throughout the 2026 World Cup.
