Overview
Arsenal are getting closer to a ticket to the UEFA Champions League semi-finals for the second consecutive season, although their recent form is not really convincing before the second leg against Sporting.
The "Gunners'" hopes of winning the Premier League for the first time in 22 years have just been severely damaged when they lost 1-2 to Bournemouth right at home. This is already the third defeat in their last 4 matches in all competitions, with a live ball xG index of only 0.19 - the second lowest in Arsenal's home history in the league.
Meanwhile, Manchester City has taken advantage of the opportunity to narrow the gap in the championship race after a 3-0 victory over Chelsea, putting pressure on Arsenal before the great battle at the Etihad.
However, the Champions League is still opening up opportunities for Arsenal to regain motivation. They are leading 1-0 after the first leg at Estadio Jose Alvalade, where Kai Havertz scored the decisive goal, bringing home the 10th victory in 11 matches in this season's tournament.
Head-to-head history is supporting Arsenal as they are unbeaten in 8 encounters with Sporting in Europe (4 wins, 4 draws), and have not lost in the last 8 home matches against Portuguese representatives (6 wins, 2 draws).
Notably, Arsenal have advanced in 19/20 times in the two legs of the knockout rounds when winning the first leg away from home. At the Emirates, they have also only lost 1 of their last 23 matches in European competitions - the only defeat was against Paris Saint-Germain in the semi-finals last season.
Conversely, Sporting is facing a historic task when they have never defeated Arsenal in Europe. The Portuguese representative has also not won in England since 2005 and is going through a 10-match winless streak in England.
In the Champions League knockout round, Sporting also disappointed away from home when they did not win in the last 10 matches (3 draws, 7 losses), and only once successfully reversed the score after losing the first leg at home.
However, Rui Borges's team still has a basis for hope. They once reversed the game after losing 0-3 to Bodo/Glimt in the previous round and are in good form in the domestic league with 3 consecutive victories.
Notable names on Sporting's side include Luis Suarez and Francisco Trincao - each of whom contributed to 7 goals in the Champions League this season.
As for Arsenal, Martin Odegaard is likely to return in time, while Bukayo Saka and Jurrien Timber are still open to playing. Mikel Merino is definitely absent.
With the available advantage and supporting statistics, Arsenal is holding the right to self-determination. But in the context of unstable form, they still need a convincing performance.
Head-to-head record
Arsenal has a great advantage in head-to-head history as they have never lost to Sporting in European competitions (4 wins, 4 draws). This is also the opponent Sporting has met the most in European cups but has never won.
However, the Portuguese representative once surpassed Arsenal in the only time the two teams met in a two-round knockout format, when they won the right to advance in the round of 16 of the UEFA Europa League 2022-2023 after a penalty shootout.
More broadly, Arsenal still shows stability against Portuguese teams when they have only lost 1 in the last 12 matches (6 wins, 5 draws), and are unbeaten in the last 8 home matches (6 wins, 2 draws).
From an overall perspective, the English representatives completely overwhelmed when winning the last 10 knockout matches in the Champions League against Portuguese teams. The most recent exception took place from the 2005-2006 season, when Benfica eliminated Liverpool with a total score of 3-0 in the round of 16.
In addition, English clubs have also won all 9 encounters with Portuguese teams in the Champions League quarter-finals, further strengthening Arsenal's confidence before the second leg.
Score prediction: Arsenal 0-0 Sporting
The match between Arsenal and Sporting takes place at 2:00 a.m. on April 16 (Vietnam time).
