Overview
Unfavorable statistics are surrounding Manchester City as they enter the second leg of the UEFA Champions League round of 16 against Real Madrid.
In the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu, Federico Valverde's hat-trick helped the Royal team win 3-0, putting one foot in the quarterfinals.
After that, Real Madrid continued to show their strength with a 4-1 victory over Elche in La Liga, thereby gaining great confidence before the away trip to Etihad.
History is also completely on the side of the Spanish representative. This is the 36th time Real Madrid has won the first leg of the knockout round with a difference of 3 goals or more in European cups, and they have never been eliminated in all 35 previous times.
Coach Alvaro Arbeloa, although still controversial, is facing the opportunity to go down in history when he can become the first strategist of Real Madrid to win all 4 of the first knockout matches in the Champions League. This is an achievement that only Carlo Ancelotti had previously done in the first 3 matches.
In the opposite direction, coach Pep Guardiola is facing a worrying precedent. Since the 2014-2015 season with Bayern Munich, he has never helped any team successfully come back after losing the first leg in the Champions League, and with Man City, he has failed in all three times falling into this situation.
What happened in the first leg further showed Man City's inferiority. Real Madrid only allowed the opponent to launch 8 shots and achieved a meager xG of 0.59 - the lowest level of the English team in the Champions League this season.
If they want to create a miracle, Man City will need more from Erling Haaland. The Norwegian striker did not take any shots in the first leg - the first time in 38 Champions League matches for Man City.
I have to admit this task is very big. Scoring more than 3 goals against Real Madrid is not easy at all and the result in the first leg is really not perfect.
But at the same time, we are here, at Etihad, where we can always create the greatest motivation with our fans. This must be a perfect match in many aspects" - Guardiola admitted before the match.
In terms of force, the Etihad home team is still lacking Josko Gvardiol and Rico Lewis, while Real Madrid also suffered losses when Kylian Mbappe had a knee problem, Jude Bellingham could not return, and Eder Militao and Rodrygo were long-term absent.
Head-to-head record
Head-to-head statistics also do not favor Man City. They have lost 3 out of 4 recent encounters with Real Madrid in the Champions League - equal to the number of losses in 12 previous encounters.
Real Madrid is currently aiming to eliminate Man City in the knockout round for the 5th time, after the 2015-2016, 2021-2022, 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 seasons - a achievement showing the clear superiority of the Spanish team in the continental arena.
Score prediction: Man City 1-2 Real Madrid
The match between Man City and Real Madrid takes place at 3:00 AM on March 18 (Vietnam time).
