Fiorentina vs Atalanta Serie A football prediction

An An |

Football prediction for the Fiorentina - Atalanta match within the framework of round 38 of Serie A season 2025-2026.

Overview

Just one week after officially staying in Serie A, Fiorentina continued to create an exciting atmosphere when defeating Juventus 2-0 in the most recent round, with Rolando Mandragora's masterpiece becoming a memorable highlight.

That is a worthy reward for the strong revival of the purple team under Paolo Vanoli - who took over Fiorentina during the period when the club was deeply mired in the relegation battle at the beginning of the season.

When Vanoli came to Florence, Fiorentina's goal was simply to "survive" in Serie A. But since then, the Tuscanese team has completely changed its appearance. In the last 10 matches in the domestic league, they have only lost one match and have achieved a top-notch Serie A record in the same period.

In particular, Fiorentina won 28 points in the second half of the season - 15 points more than in the first half. The defense has also become a major support when they kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 matches.

However, Vanoli is likely to still leave Fiorentina after this season. This further makes the home team Artemio Franchi want to close the emotional journey with a victory over Atalanta.

History is also supporting Fiorentina. They are unbeaten in 7 consecutive home matches and won the last match of the season in the last 4 years, including a 3-2 victory over Atalanta in June 2024.

In the opposite direction, Atalanta often disappoints in the final rounds. The Bergamo team has lost 5 out of the last 6 matches of the last season in Serie A and only won 2 out of the last 24 away games to Franchi.

However, Atalanta still has their own motivation. After a 2-0 victory in the first leg in November last year, they aim to win both legs against Fiorentina for the second time in the 21st century.

Like Fiorentina, Atalanta also underwent a revival process after changing coaches in the middle of the season. When coach Raffaele Palladino took over, this team was still only around mid-table. But towards the end of the season, Atalanta became more stable and finally won a ticket to the UEFA Conference League despite losing to Bologna last week.

It is noteworthy that under Palladino, Atalanta has never lost 2 consecutive matches in Serie A. This makes the return to Florence of the Italian strategist even more noteworthy, especially since he himself helped Fiorentina finish in sixth place last season.

Personnel situation

Fiorentina is likely to continue to be without their number one striker Moise Kean, who has been sidelined since the beginning of April due to a tibia injury. If he does not recover in time, the Italian striker will miss the ninth consecutive Serie A match.

In that context, Roberto Piccoli is expected to continue to start in attack. Fiorentina also suffered additional losses when Fabiano Parisi suffered a knee injury in the match against Juventus. In defense, Luca Ranieri was suspended after a red card last weekend, forcing Paolo Vanoli to consider using Daniele Rugani or Pietro Comuzzo as replacements.

On Atalanta's side, the duo Gianluca Scamacca and Nikola Krstovic both scored 10 goals in the league this season. Notably, Krstovic is particularly dangerous away from home with 8 goals.

The away team will be missing Odilon Kossounou and Lorenzo Bernasconi due to injury, but Isak Hien may return after suspension.

Expected lineup:

De Gea, Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Gosens, Ndour, Fagioli, Mandragora, Harrison, Piccoli, Solomon.

Carnesecchi, Scalvini, Hien, Kolasinac, Zappacosta, De Roon, Ederson, Zalewski, De Ketelaere, Raspadori, Krstovic.

The match between Fiorentina and Atalanta takes place at 1:45 AM on May 23rd (Vietnam time).

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