The UEFA Champions League round of 16 has created 8 notable matches: Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen, Real Madrid vs Man City, Galatasaray vs Liverpool, Newcastle vs Barcelona, Chelsea vs PSG, Bayern Munich vs Atalanta, Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham and Sporting Lisbon vs Bodo/Glimt.
Immediately after having the results of 8 matches and the draw for the quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals, the Opta supercomputer gave a prediction about the chances of the teams going further.
Arsenal is still the brightest candidate according to the supercomputer's assessment, with 27.4% out of a total of 10,000 simulations. Mikel Arteta's team is estimated to have over 85% chance of overcoming Leverkusen in the round of 16.
Behind them is Bayern Munich, a team also highly rated. The Bundesliga champion is in extremely impressive form this season and has been ranked in the round of 16 against Atalanta. According to forecasts, Bayern Munich has a 14.3% chance of winning the championship this season.
Mentioning the Real Madrid vs Man City match, this will be the fifth consecutive season these two clubs have faced each other in the Champions League. Man City is a brighter candidate to advance (64.3%), and has defeated Real Madrid in the group stage this season (2-1). Pep Guardiola's team is fourth in the list of championship candidates according to supercomputer predictions (10.8%).
Real Madrid has won 15 C1/Champions League titles, but according to Opta's simulation, they only have 35.7% chance of defeating Man City and 2.8% chance of winning the championship - a very low rate.
Despite their rather fluctuating form this season, Liverpool is still highly rated. According to computer analysis, Arne Slot's team has a 82.8% chance of defeating Galatasaray and a 12.8% chance of winning the championship. Meanwhile, the Turkish team only has 0.2% chance of winning the championship in this arena, the lowest rate among 16 teams.
Barcelona will face Newcastle United again after defeating the English team 2-1 in the group stage at St. James' Park, before possibly meeting Atletico Madrid or Tottenham in the quarterfinals and possibly Arsenal in the semi-finals.
Hansi Flick's team has a 7.7% chance of winning the championship this season. This index on Newcastle's side is 4.7%, even higher than both PSG and Real Madrid.
Last season, reigning champion PSG had to overcome three Premier League teams to advance to the final, and this time they may face four teams. They will face Chelsea in the round of 16; then, they may meet Liverpool in the quarterfinals, Man City in the semi-finals, and Arsenal or Tottenham in the final.
Of course, there are many hypotheses here. The supercomputer makes a rather harsh prediction about their chances of defending the championship (4.6%). PSG's poor form this season, coupled with struggling to overcome AS Monaco in the recent play-offs, is the reason why the computer predicts PSG's ability to defend the title is not high.
Chelsea, PSG's opponent in the round of 16, has a 6.9% chance of winning the UEFA Champions League this season. This rate is higher than Atletico Madrid (2%) and Tottenham (1.2%).
Bodø/Glimt has become a surprising phenomenon of this season's Champions League, when they defeated Man City and Atletico in the group stage to win a ticket to the play-offs, before spectacularly eliminating Inter, the runner-up last season.
Kjetil Knutsen's team has qualified for the round of 16 against Sporting CP, before facing Arsenal or Bayer Leverkusen in the quarterfinals if their miraculous journey continues. The Norwegian team is considered to have a 0.4% chance of winning the championship this season and if successful, it will be one of the biggest shocks in the history of the league.
