The world is likely not yet able to "rest" before extreme heat waves. The latest forecast models show that 2026 is forecast to be about 1.4 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average, putting this year into the group of 4 hottest years since 1850 to date.
Although it may not exceed the temperature record of 2024, 2026 is still forecast to approach a higher threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius - the level that global leaders have committed not to exceed within the framework of the Paris Climate Agreement.
In recent years, global temperatures have been pushed into an unprecedented zone. 2023 and 2024 recorded a series of records of temperatures, extreme rains and deadly weather phenomena in many regions, from South Asia to Europe.
Prolonged heat waves, flash floods and severe droughts have become more familiar images in weather forecasts.
The UK Met Office forecasts that the global average temperature in 2026 will fluctuate in the range of 1.34 - 1.58 degrees Celsius, higher than the 1850-1900 average. This range shows how high the Earth's temperature has risen in just over a century.
Continuously exceeding the 1.4-degree Celsius mark is no longer just symbolic. Previously, the global average temperature had never exceeded 1.3 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period. However, the last 3 years are said to have exceeded 1.4 degrees Celsius and 2026 may be the fourth consecutive year.
This increase amplifies extreme weather phenomena: prolonged and more dangerous heat waves, torrential heavy rain causing unexpected flooding, and prolonged droughts.
Scientists warn that the amount of greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere is destabilizing the climate system, increasing the risk of irreversible "outbreak points" such as large icebergs collapsing or widespread ecosystem degradation.
At the 2015 Climate Conference, countries agreed within the framework of the Paris Agreement to keep global temperature increases within 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Because this goal is calculated as a long-term average, exceeding the threshold in a single year does not mean the world officially fails.
However, the fact that in 2024 it temporarily exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time has deeply worried global climate scientists. Data from the European Union's Copernicus program shows that the global average temperature in recent months has increased by nearly 1.48 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period - a dangerous level.
Natural cycles like El Nino have contributed to pushing temperatures up in the 2023-2024 period, while weak La Nina in 2025 only brings a slight cooling effect. However, these short-term fluctuations occur on the basis of a long-term warming trend caused by humans.
The burning of fossil fuels and deforestation continue, causing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere to reach record levels. The United Nations warns that natural "carbon absorption tanks" such as forests and oceans may be reducing their ability to absorb emissions, making the warming process worse.
