Since Sir Alex Ferguson retired, after 11 years and 7 coaches, Man United has yet to form a style of play or identity. No matter how bad the players' performances are every week, fans have never thought of the prospect of Man United being relegated.
However, that scary scenario is gradually becoming clearer, when Man United has lost 4 consecutive matches and dropped to 14th place in the Premier League table, only 7 points above the relegation zone. Coach Ruben Amorim also publicly admitted that the prospect of relegation is "possible" if the team does not improve their performance. In the next round, Man United will visit Anfield to face Liverpool, where they have not won since 2016.
Man United's future has never looked so bleak in the Premier League era, but are Ruben Amorim's men so bad they could be relegated to the Championship?
According to the Opta supercomputer, Man United are not really considered candidates for relegation. In 10,000 simulations after 38 rounds of the 2024-2025 season, only 15 results would cause the Old Trafford team to be relegated (reaching a rate of 0.15%).
In the Premier League standings as of round 19, Man United is ranked 14th with 22 points, 7 points above the relegation zone. This gap is not large, but it will still be a big challenge for all 3 teams at the bottom of the table. Therefore, the prospect of The Red Devils being relegated is unlikely to happen.
However, Red Devils fans may be worried by statistics from Opta Analyst. Man Utd have averaged just 0.88 points per game under Amorim. If their poor form continues for the rest of the season, Man Utd will only accumulate a total of 39 points. If this scenario becomes true, this will be Man United's lowest points tally in the Premier League era.
More worryingly, 39 points is not a total number of points that can ensure a safe position in the group that does not have to be relegated. According to statistics, since the Premier League had 20 teams in the 1995-1996 season, there have been 6 representatives who had to be relegated despite accumulating more than 39 points. Those are the teams in the 1996-1997 season such as Middlesbrough (39 points), Sunderland (40 points), Coventry City (41 points).
Other teams to suffer the same fate include Bolton Wanderers in 1997-98 (40 points), West Ham in 2002-03 (42 points), Birmingham City in 2010-11 (39 points) and Blackpool in 2010-11 (39 points). However, since 2010-11, teams have been relegated with significantly fewer points. From 1995-96 to the end of 2010-11, relegated teams averaged 31.9 points, while that figure has dropped to 28.8 points since the start of 2011-12.
This will be Man United's worst season, starting the year in 14th place in the rankings. Previously, the "Red Devils" have never started the new year lower than 7th in the Premier League. In history, there have been 8 teams who started the new year in 14th place or higher but still got relegated.
