Since Sir Alex Ferguson retired, after more than 11 years with 7 coaches, Man United has not yet formed a playing style or identity. No matter how bad the players' performances every week are, fans have never thought about the prospect of M.U being relegated.
However, that scary scenario is gradually becoming clear, as Man United have lost 4 consecutive matches and dropped to 14th place in the Premier League rankings, only 7 points above the relegation zone. Coach Ruben Amorim himself also publicly admitted that the possibility of relegation is "possible" if the whole team does not improve their performance. In the next round, Man United will visit Anfield against Liverpool, where they have not been able to win since 2016.
Man United's future has never been so gloomy in the Premier League era, but are Ruben Amorim's team so bad that they have to play in the Championship?
According to the Opta supercomputer, Man United is not really considered a candidate in the relegation zone. In 10,000 scenario simulations after 38 rounds of the 2024-2025 season, only 15 results have caused the Old Trafford team to drop (reaching a rate of 0.15%).
In the rankings up to round 19 of the Premier League, Man United is ranked 14th with 22 points, 7 points above the relegation zone. This gap is not big, but it will also be a big challenge for all 3 teams in the bottom group. Therefore, the prospect of The Red Devils being relegated is unlikely.
However, Red Devils fans may be concerned about the statistics from Opta Analyst. Man Utd have averaged just 0.88 points per game under Amorim. If they continue their poor form for the rest of the season, M.U will only accumulate a total of 39 points. If this prospect becomes a reality, this will be Man United's lowest score in the Premier League era.
More worryingly, 39 points is not a total score that can ensure a safe position in the group without having to be relegated. According to statistics, since the Premier League had 20 teams in the 1995-1966 season, 6 representatives have been relegated despite accumulating over 39 points. Those were the teams in the 1996-1997 season such as Middlesbrough (39 points), Sunderland (40 points), Coventry City (41 points).
Other teams to suffer the same fate are Bolton Wanderers in 1997-1998 (40 points), West Ham in 2002-2003 (42 points), Birmingham City in 2010 2011 (39 points) and Blackpool in 2010 2011 (39 points). However, since 2010-11, teams have been relegated with significantly fewer points. From 1995-1996 to the end of 2010-2011, relegated teams have averaged 31.9 points, while that figure has been just 28.8 points since the start of 2011-2012.
This will be Man United's worst season yet, having to start the new year in 14th place in the rankings. Previously, the "Red Devils" have never started the new year lower than 7th in the Premier League. Historically, there have been 8 teams that started the new year in 14th place or higher but still had to be relegated.
