According to the latest storm information from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), tropical storm 23W (Philippine name: Mirasol) is currently about 367 km north of the capital Manila and is moving north-northeast at a speed of 22 km/h. At sea, the highest wave was recorded at about 3.7 m.
Over the next 24 hours, mirasol will continue moving northwest. It is expected that in the next 12 hours, the system will go out to sea, encountering favorable conditions for development. Initially, the storm will strengthen slowly, then speed up development.
In the next 36 hours, the storm will change direction to west-northwest and reach a maximum intensity of 85 km/h in the next 36 hours. However, as it approaches the shore, the storm may gradually weaken.
Mr. Mirasol is expected to make landfall in the next 2-3 days and gradually dissipate as it moves further inland.
Forecast models generally agree on the northwest and west-northwest routes, but there is still a deviation of about 400 km at the end of the forecast period.
Some scenarios suggest that the storm could have been stronger if it had remained in the South China Sea for longer.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the center of the tropical depression is at about 17.3°N - 121.3°E, in the northwest area of Luzon Island (Philippines).
The strongest wind near the center of the tropical depression is level 7 (50-61km/h), gusting to level 9.
The tropical depression is moving northwest at a speed of about 15km/h.
By September 18, the tropical depression will continue to move northwest at 15-20 km/h, entering the East Sea and is likely to strengthen into a storm. Location at about 20.1°N-118.5°E; in the northeastern sea area of the North East Sea. Intensity level 8, gust level 10.
Natural disaster risk level 3 for the northeastern sea area of the North East Sea.
In the next few days, the northern Philippines, especially Luzon Island, may be directly affected by Hurricane Mirasol with heavy rain, strong winds and high waves. Tourists who are in the Philippines or planning to travel to Hong Kong Island and southern provinces of China should closely monitor forecast information, avoid going to sea and consider adjusting their schedule to ensure safety.
