The stock market recorded an impressive recovery last week when the VN-Index surpassed the important resistance level of 1,300 points, the level established from August 2022 to present.
In particular, the positive signal from market liquidity suddenly increased sharply, exceeding the 20-week average. Statistics on the HOSE show that the total trading value last week increased by more than 16% compared to last week, to VND94,738 billion, this is also the 6th consecutive week of increased liquidity.
Looking back, the stock market in February ended with many optimistic signals when the VN-Index officially re-established the 1,300-point mark, for the first time since September 2024. This is a milestone that investors have been looking forward to for a long time, but it is also a sensitive price zone, where the pressure to adjust and take profits can increase strongly.
In fact, over the past year, the VN-Index has fluctuated many times within the range of 1,200 - 1,300 points without being able to truly break out, showing that this is still an important resistance zone. The liquidity increase in the past week of 13% compared to the previous week is a good sign, but the VN-Index did not have a strong increase, as the profit-taking movement began to grow.
In addition, foreign investors net sold more than VND 2,800 billion. Net selling activities of foreign investors occurred in the context of high exchange rates and the world is gradually showing instability as well as concerns about a major trade war.
Currently, in the context of the global economy and politics with many unpredictable variables, the Vietnamese stock market is unlikely to be immune to external impacts. Therefore, March is the time when analysts predict that there may be some corrections, but it is unlikely that a sharp decline will change the main trend.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Investment Director of DG Capital - said that in the short term, the increase could be consistent and last until next week, but with the VN-Index, it is impossible to ignore the scenario of an adjustment in March.
First is the net selling pressure from foreign capital flows, the adjustment pressure from global stocks, always affecting the Vietnamese market even though the effect may be delayed.
Second, stocks with a solid growth foundation such as banks have long no safe buying points. The clear breakthrough is unlikely to be confirmed if there is a lack of momentum from the banking group, when considering the price level, this group is currently no longer too cheap.
In addition, a very important piece of information recently is that the Prime Minister has issued a directive to inspect banks with signs of unfair competition based on the move to increase deposit interest rates, and at the same time issued a directive to banks to "really share part of the profits to reduce lending interest rates to support people and businesses" - a series of implies leading to the net interest rate threshold, also known as NIM, of the banking system being somewhat affected.
Assessing the scenario for the VN-Index in the short term, analysts from DSC Securities Company believe that the stock market will have healthy adjustment sessions at the beginning of the week, re-evaluating the support zone of 1,290 - 1,295 points before entering the uptrend again on the weekend.
After a period of rest, the banking group may return to lead the market, replacing the securities and steel group. If market sentiment is excited, the VN-Index can reach 1,320 points. Another industry group worth paying attention to is steel, when the Ministry of Industry and Trade decided to impose a temporary anti-dumping tax on some hot-rolled steel products originating from China. Although this decision helps protect the domestic steel market, not all businesses will benefit equally, experts from DSC Securities Company expressed their opinion.
