The stock market is having days of trading with excitement along with support from many large-cap stocks. Market liquidity has also improved and the bottom-fishing force at the 1,300 threshold has been quite good in recent sessions.
This also shows that cash flow is still constant, mainly participating in low price areas and this can bring the opportunity to open up more recovery momentum for the index. However, with the index facing a notable resistance zone and some technical indicators having reached the overbought zone, the risk of an early correction should be noted.
Analysts from SHS Securities Company believe that the short-term trend of VN-Index will continue to grow with the nearest support zone around the psychological mark of 1,300 points. This is also a price area that the index has not been able to surpass since August 2022. After the market overcame the psychological resistance zone with liquidity exceeding the average of 2024, the market medium-term outlook became more positive. The market is still under constant pressure to re-check the price range of 1,300 points, as well as create a new price foundation on a new liquidity foundation.
Yuanta Securities Company believes that the market may continue to increase in the next session and the VN-Index will challenge the 1,310 point level. At the same time, the market shows signs of entering a period of strong fluctuations in a positive direction, so the VN-Index may soon surpass 1,310 points in the coming trading sessions. In addition, the short-term sentiment index continues to decrease slightly, showing that investors are less optimistic.
Meanwhile, according to Thien Viet Securities Joint Stock Company (TVS), the VN-Index in January 2025 experienced a slight adjustment and reversal to increase mainly thanks to the price increase of the mid-cap group and the recovery of the VN30 group. In the VN30 group, many bank stocks increased in price, contributing to consolidating the recovery momentum of the VN-Index in the month.
Also in January 2025, many listed enterprises announced business results for the whole year of 2024 with positive results. The after-tax profit of the whole market in 2024 increased by 19.3% compared to the previous year, mainly thanks to contributions from the non-financial group (+21.6%) and finance (+17.1%).
However, the P/E ratio of VN-Index remained at 13.3x, showing that the valuation has not fluctuated much. According to experts from TVS Securities Company, the VN-Index's P/E forward in 2025 will continue to decrease to around 12.5 times if the profit of the whole market continues to increase by 14.7% for the whole year.
In addition, with ETFs continuing to net sell at $23 million in January 2025, according to experts, this trend will continue in the coming months if President Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs on many other countries. The fact that taxable countries take retaliatory measures will increase the risk of global trade war. This could cause large funds to continue to net sell and reduce the proportion of stocks from developing/newly emerging markets to limit investment portfolio risks.
Commenting on the development of the VN-Index, TVS Research forecasts that the index may face an adjustment due to pressure from US tariff policies.
In addition, the continued decline in investment cash flow in the market is also a factor that causes the VN-Index to face a disadvantage in the coming time. The reason is that foreign investors continue to net sell due to concerns about the risk of a trade war, while domestic investors may allocate assets to other investment channels that have been performing better recently such as gold or cryptocurrency.
