Optimism in the easing trend
The world is witnessing positive changes as monetary policy gradually shifts from tightening to loosening. Assets such as stocks, gold and cryptocurrencies have achieved impressive recoveries. In particular, in the US, after the November 2024 election, the stock market is expected to grow by an average of 9.3% over the next 12 months.
ETF inflows into US equity funds hit a 10-year record of $1 trillion. However, the P/E ratio, a tool for investors to find low-priced stocks that are largely overlooked by the market, is at a high level, and the market is expected to experience a correction of 5-7% in the first half of 2025 before recovering and growing more positively by the end of the year.
Recently, market management agencies such as the State Securities Commission and the Ministry of Finance are also speeding up solutions to meet the final conditions according to the FTSE Russell (FTES) upgrade criteria.
Putting his faith in the ability to upgrade the stock market from frontier to emerging, Chairman of the Board of Directors and General Director of VPBank Securities JSC (VPBankS), Mr. Vu Huu Dien, affirmed that Vietnam's position in attracting foreign investment capital in general, first of all, cash flow from ETFs and active investment funds in the future will be increasingly enhanced.
2025 is considered a pivotal year as Vietnam aims to upgrade its market. Vietnam has met 7/9 FTSE criteria and is expected to complete all international requirements in September 2025.
If upgraded, the Vietnamese market could mobilize up to 1.7 billion USD in passive capital and 6-7 billion USD in active capital, bringing a leap forward in liquidity and growth of the VN-Index.
Liquidity is also expected to increase thanks to domestic and foreign cash flows increasing again since August, after Vietnam was officially upgraded.
Up to now, despite facing challenges from net selling of more than 3.1 billion USD from foreign investors, VN-Index is still anchored at a high level of 1,200-1,300 points, proving its attractiveness compared to many regional markets.
A big turning point for the Vietnamese stock market
2025 promises to be a turning point for the Vietnamese stock market as there were many challenges in the first half of the year, but opportunities for long-term accumulation emerged clearly at the end of the year.
Speaking to reporters at the workshop "VPBankS Talk #4: Steadfastly overcoming storms", Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Director of Market Strategy VPBankS Research, said that the appropriate strategy for 2025 is "Buy in May and hold to the end", meaning that the market will have low points from April to June, especially May.
Notably, the Director of Market Strategy, VPBankS Research emphasized: "After the trough in mid-2025, the market is forecast to recover in a positive direction in September and October. Therefore, investors can plan for medium-term decisions and evaluate stock portfolios that promise to take profits at the end of the growth cycle when the market accelerates and explodes again."
