The stock market had a slight decline this week, but liquidity also decreased, trading activities on the electronic board were generally gloomy due to the lack of sufficient supporting information. A part of the cash flow circulated between small and medium-sized stocks.
Besides the not-so-positive general market trend, foreign investors also contributed by net selling more than VND1,300 billion in the week from December 9-13.
The VN-Index is finding support at 1,250 points and is expected to return to growth with support from sectors such as financial services, retail, insurance and steel in late 2024.
On the other hand, although the banking group is likely to continue to attract cash flow, trading performance is likely to be lower than the general level in the context of many leading stocks being traded at historical peaks. Although valuations remain attractive, this somewhat affects the general trading sentiment and cash flow is expected to shift to sectors with higher potential for price increases.
Mr. Le Duc Khanh, Director of Analysis at VPS Securities Company, expressed his opinion that up to now, the VN-Index has increased by about 10%, especially in November and December, the market has seen some explosive trading sessions and the VN-Index has determined its deepest bottom at 1,200 points. The market is determining an upward trend from now until the end of the year and in the coming period.
“In 2025, the stock market has good prospects with catalysts such as GDP growth, export growth... We expect the market to grow more positively by 15-20% and this is the period when investors should think about buying and accumulating,” said the analysis director of VPS Securities Company.
Mirae Asset Securities Company has just released a market assessment report with the view that it continues to expect that cash flow will continue to spread and promote a broad-based increase to help VN-Index conquer the psychological resistance zone of 1,300 points. At the same time, Mirae Asset recommends necessary caution as profit-taking pressure may form in the 1,300-point zone and extend to 1,330 points.
Looking ahead to 2025, Mirae Asset sees a number of drivers that could have a major impact on the market. For manufacturing, the positive outlook for the stability of the manufacturing sector in 2025 is supported by the benefits of supply chain diversification from the “China + 1” strategy and Vietnam will continue to attract FDI inflows in the coming time.
For domestic consumption, consumer spending will grow steadily, but at a modest level due to the impact of asset depreciation from the uneven recovery of the real estate and stock markets.
Regarding bad debt, with Circular 02/2023 of the State Bank of Vietnam expiring on December 31, 2024, commercial banks will likely pursue a three-pronged strategy: Increasing credit risk provisions, promoting bond issuance to support credit growth, and promoting corporate debt restructuring activities in the context of the business environment showing no clear signs of recovery.
For the corporate bond market, the grace period for bonds with rescheduled payment terms under Decree 08/2023 of the Government will gradually expire, creating asset quality risks for banks and system liquidity challenges in the first half of 2025, especially when the real estate, construction and energy sectors are still facing difficulties in business operations as well as refinancing pressure.
