Recently, in the latest economic update report on Vietnam on October 18, Standard Chartered Bank raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 to 6.8% (from 6.0%) thanks to higher-than-expected GDP results in the third quarter.
Additionally, Standard Chartered forecasts fourth-quarter growth at 6.9%, with 2025 remaining at 6.7%, with growth expected to pick up to 7.5% in the first half and 6.1% in the second half year-on-year.
According to economists at Standard Chartered Bank, Vietnam’s economic growth momentum is relatively strong, with better improvement in many sectors, including import and export, retail, real estate, tourism, construction and manufacturing. The recovery in trade and increased business activity and foreign direct investment will be the main growth drivers in 2025 and beyond.
According to Mr. Tim Leelahaphan - Vietnam and Thailand economic expert, Standard Chartered Bank - although short-term economic pressure in Vietnam may still exist, the economy's performance is better than market expectations.
"The government's push for economic growth could help keep interest rates low in the near future, and the Fed's actions will be a key factor influencing The State Bank of Vietnam's monetary policy decisions. We expect interest rates to increase by another 50 basis points next year, instead of in the fourth quarter of 2024 as previously forecast," said Mr. Tim Leelahaphan.
In a recently released report, HSBC’s global research division said that Vietnam’s growth potential of 7.4% in the third quarter was “higher than expected”. After a “difficult” 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, Vietnam has returned to being the growth star of ASEAN, despite the impact of super typhoon Yagi.
“What is worrying is that the rebound in trade bans was concentrated in the electronics sector but is now showing signs of spreading, with textile and footwear exports rising 16.7% year-on-year,” HSBC said in a report. HSBC raised its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2024 to 7% from its previous forecast of 6.5%.
Previously, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also expected Vietnam's GDP to grow by 6.1% this year, higher than the organization's forecast in June.
Assessing after the regular consultation ended at the end of August, IMF experts said that Vietnam's economy will grow by 5% in 2023 despite many challenges, thanks to the Government's drastic policies. Turmoil in the real estate market, financial stress and sharp decline in exports have affected the economy.
Growth will begin to recover from late 2023, thanks to exports and tourism, as well as looser fiscal and monetary policies. As a result, the IMF forecasts GDP growth this year at 6.1%, up from nearly 6% in its June report.
