In the last trading sessions of the year, VN-Index recorded quite strong fluctuations, mainly stemming from the fluctuations of large-cap stocks. With unexpected developments in the last two trading sessions of the past week, determining the trend of the stock market will be more difficult.
Bottom-fishing demand is still present, but not strong enough to confirm the recovery trend. This makes investors still fear that the market will have another negative correction phase.
Stepping into the last trading week of the solar year, many analysts of securities companies share the same view when saying that the dien bien (developments) of Vingroup stocks will continue to be a key factor dominating both the index and market sentiment. The fact that these stocks appeared strongly retracted candles, closing near the highest level in the last session of the week with noteworthy bottom-fishing liquidity makes short-term trends unpredictable.
In other industry groups, it is highly likely that the market will continue to strongly differentiate. In addition to the Oil and Gas group, which is showing relatively clear cash flow, most of the remaining industry groups have not recorded the synchronous and strong enough participation of large cash flow. This development may cause the index to continue to fluctuate in the remaining sessions, with a relatively wide fluctuation range.
However, this fluctuation level does not fully reflect the general trend of the market, because the index is heavily influenced by some leading bigcap codes, while the remaining stock level does not fluctuate too negatively.
In that context, it is possible that VN-Index will have another sell-off in the short term, before the market can enter a more significant and clear recovery phase after the New Year holiday.
From a technical and actual supply and demand perspective, VN-Index still stands firm in the strong support area of 1,680 - 1,700 points and buying demand in many basic stock groups is still quite good. Cash flow has not withdrawn from the market but is mainly in an observatory state, ready to return when the market is more balanced.
In terms of performance, the stock market has recorded positive developments in January for many years and spread throughout the first quarter. This is also the period when the market gradually escaped the state of information shortage when businesses successively announced Q4 business results, full-year results and business plans for the following year, helping the prospects and investment vision become clearer.
In addition, macroeconomic orientations and policies for the new year, including fiscal and monetary policy, are often announced or started to be implemented at the beginning of the year, thereby contributing to strengthening the positive psychology of investors.
With the picture of Q4/2025 business results, experts expect that the profits of listed companies will continue to achieve high growth in the quarter, about 20% compared to the same period with the driving force coming from the internal strength of the domestic market, low interest rate environment and strong public investment disbursement. The recovery of the large-cap group not only helps stabilize the index, but also creates conditions for cash flow to continue to differentiate and rotate between industry groups.
Instead of focusing heavily on a few pillar stocks like in the previous period, cash flow is tending to seek opportunities in many different stock classes, from benefit groups according to economic cycles to businesses with their own stories of business results or restructuring.
This reflects the market's "rebalancing" state after a strong fluctuation, as cash flow begins to focus more on valuation and profit prospects instead of just chasing short-term trends.
In the current context, VN-Index can be expected to maintain a stable state in the coming sessions, as long as no more macroeconomic information or unusual negative events appear.
