After an impressive recovery of nearly 50 points, experts assess that there is not enough basis to confirm that the market has entered a sustainable reversal phase. The reason is that liquidity has not shown any signs of optimism because the cash flow is still quite cautious.
And that was reflected in today's trading session, December 17. The cautious psychology of both buying and selling has caused the VN-Index to quickly move to a state of fluctuations. The open market continued to maintain its upward momentum but quickly reversed and decreased.
VN-Index had a time to decrease by more than 20 points before recovering to the end of the session with a decrease of 5.5 points to 1,673 points. Liquidity decreased when the trading value on HOSE reached more than VND 19,500 billion. Foreign investors' transactions were balanced when they bought lightly across the market.
Experts assessed that the recent recovery session only had a positive meaning when relieving investors' psychology after a period of rapid market decline. Cash flow has also spread widely in many industry groups instead of only concentrating in some pillar stocks. However, reversing the sustainable uptrend requires further confirmation from liquidity and the even spread of cash flow in the following beats.
One of the important signals to confirm the bottoming market is the appearance of strong fluctuations over a wide area, then a decisive reversal in the session, thereby promoting the process of "blood-changing" cash flow. This development is often accompanied by a sharp increase in matched liquidity, about 50% or higher than the level of trading sessions in the same period.
According to Dragon Capital, the decrease in liquidity mainly reflects the fact that investors do not change many positions, limit chasing and the market is in a state of absorbing less growth momentum, rather than starting from changes in fundamental factors.
Cash flow tends to stay on the sidelines to wait for clearer signals, instead of disbursing strongly in the context of limited degrees of certainty. Technically, the possibility of liquidity improving sharply in the short term is not high. indics show that active cash flow has not shown any clear signs of a return, while new demand has not formed strong enough to create a breakthrough. However, the positive point is that foreign investors have started to return to net buying in recent sessions, contributing to improving general sentiment and partly supporting market liquidity.
Statistics from the past 10 years show that market liquidity often tends to be quiet at the end of the year, especially in December, when investors close their books, limit transactions or restructure portfolios cautiously. In fact, liquidity only really improved when new cash flow returned and business expectations entered a new growth cycle.
In the context of the end of the year often accompanied by cautious sentiment and general liquidity remaining low, stocks with good fundamentals and profit growth prospects in 2026 continue to be a suitable destination for partial disbursement strategies.
The banking group is assessed to have an attractive valuation when the current P/B has decreased below the 5-year average, while the profit outlook is still supported by credit growth and improved asset quality.
In addition, with the plan for development investment from the state budget in 2026 expected to reach about 1.12 million billion VND, the Construction and Construction Materials group is expected to benefit from the large workload. Some leading enterprises in the Real Estate and Retail sectors are also gradually having investment opportunities as valuations become more reasonable compared to the growth potential next year.
On the contrary, for stocks that have increased sharply in the previous period and depend heavily on short-term cash flow developments, experts recommend that investors be cautious, prioritizing monitoring the accumulation process of stocks as well as the profit developments of enterprises in the following quarters before making a disbursement decision.
