VN-Index had the 4th consecutive losing session after the previous 7 consecutive gaining sessions. The common point of the 4 recent down sessions is that the fluctuations are not large, the decrease is not high and liquidity is lost.
The matching volume on HOSE yesterday was the lowest in the past 4 sessions and decreased by (-24.3%) compared to the average of 20 sessions. Market liquidity has decreased by 33% in recent price increases, showing that cash flow is still afraid of the risk that the market will continue to decline.
Foreign investors continued to promote net selling with a total value of more than 1,800 billion VND, nearly 2.5 times higher than the previous session, in which the selling focus was a pair of banking stocks including HDB and STB.
This is not a bad and common development of the market moving close to an important resistance area. The market is gaining momentum to prepare for the opening phase in the near future.
The world macro context is still favorable as there are many grounds to believe that September 2024 will be the ripe time for the US Central Bank (Fed) to cut interest rates.
The market gradually accepted the new interest rate level when the average overnight interbank interest rate fluctuated around 4 - 4.5%/year during the past 3 months. Deposit interest rates at commercial banks for 6-9 month terms increased from the bottom of 3.6%/year to the current 4%/year, but this is still considered a low and unattractive interest rate. with investors in the context of inflation at 4.1%. The USD/VND exchange rate cooled down with the exchange rate on the free market dropping from 26,030 VND to 25,735 VND in the last 2 weeks. The stability of interest rates and exchange rates is an important foundation to help the stock market create many investment opportunities.
Business results for the second quarter of 2024 of businesses will gradually be revealed this week, with a differentiated growth picture between industry groups. In particular, the banking industry is forecast to have slow growth in business results, the real estate industry in general has flat business results, and the retail industry has an impressive recovery from last year's low base.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, said that, however, the current market valuation level is still not at an attractive level but has only become more reasonable for buying and holding. in the medium and long term, when the price increase of many industry groups is quite far from the actual profit growth.
For that reason, Dr. Phuong believes that positive macroeconomic signals and forecasts of good second quarter business results growth over the same period will be catalysts to help the stock market maintain a positive trend. in the second half of 2024. However, investors should still carefully screen for quality investment opportunities, prioritizing industry-leading stocks with attractive valuations and room for future growth.
Experts generally comment on the market's trend: the past four down sessions have not had enough momentum to form a negative trend and are still inclined towards a sideways accumulation channel. Still hoping for the optimism of the market and maintaining the viewpoint of prioritizing the selection of stocks that have built an accumulation base and have explosive sessions. Open a buy position when the general market is shaking like in the last 4 sessions.
