VN-Index has not been able to break out after yesterday's upward reversal session. Investor sentiment is still quite cautious with the sharp drop in US stocks last night, causing demand to decline compared to the previous session. However, the positive point is that yesterday's decrease amplitude was not high and liquidity dropped deeply compared to the 20-session average (-33.5%).
In addition to market liquidity dropping sharply to a half-year low, foreign investor transactions were also less active and returned to a net selling state of nearly 500 billion VND.
Although the selling force is somewhat weakened with gradually lower liquidity, the cash flow catching the bottom at low prices may appear and bring a chance to recover for the index, but the loss of the important support area around 1.24x points makes for the short trend to become more negative.
Currently, investors are really looking for a fulcrum for the market's recovery. Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, analyzed the factors supporting the market in the last months of the year will come from the fact that Vietnam's macro economy has positive development prospects, GDP in 2024 could reach increased by 6.5 - 6.8%. Stable inflation and interest rates will support the expansion of production and business of enterprises in the economy. Interest rates have recently increased, but are still low and are not expected to change much until the end of 2024, which is a positive factor for the stock market. Besides, the exchange rate has cooled down, foreign investors may soon stop net selling.
These two factors are considered to be important factors determining the stock market trend. Besides macro factors, the market expects new factors to promote sustainable market development such as the story of upgrading the market and operating the KRX system.
Experts from SHS Securities Company believe that the short-term trend of VN-Index is still negative as it cannot maintain the short-medium-term growth trend line and is currently accumulating in a narrow range with the support area of 1,200- 1,220 points (combination of the MA200 session price range with the highest price range in 2018 and the 5-year average price range).
After a strong adjustment to around 1,220 points, VN-Index is tending to recover and retest the price range of 1,245 points, corresponding to the lowest price in June and July 2024 as well as the price range of 1,245-1,255 points, the highest price in 2023. and retest the medium-term trend support line connecting the lowest price areas of November 2023 and April 2024 to present. Short-term selling pressure is increasing again but not too suddenly because many codes after falling sharply into the oversold zone are recovering again.
Some experts are of the opinion that the current trend is not clear for the upward recovery trend. Therefore, experts maintain a cautious stance, prioritize observation positions, and patiently wait for more confirmation signals from liquidity with a high increase margin before opening additional buying positions to increase the proportion. . The VN-Index has maintained the support threshold of 1,219 points in the previous session, so there is no need to panic sell at this time.
Analysts from Asean Securities Company said that selling pressure gradually eased and bottom-fishing demand appeared yesterday, helping the market have the first recovery session after a series of 3 consecutive decreasing sessions. Stock groups that dropped a lot in the previous period recovered well as many stocks increased dramatically.
It is not possible to immediately confirm a reversal signal, but the gradually decreasing liquidity on the selling side is a good signal that the supply force is gradually cooling down. The market status will continue to adjust in the coming sessions. It is recommended that investors avoid chasing too early and temporarily hold and pay attention to the risk management zone of 1,220 points.
