The stock market continues to experience a negative trading session after a series of news over the weekend. This is also the period when second quarter business results reports gradually appear and create a large-scale psychological gap when many stocks do not meet investors' expectations.
Explosive liquidity, exceeding the 20-session average (+33.2%) is a pretty bad signal in a session of deep decline. This is concurrent with the information that the total outstanding margin debt of securities companies at the end of the second quarter of 2024 reached a new peak of nearly 230,000 billion VND, higher than the peak outstanding debt of the market in early 2022, leading to the Investor sentiment is less positive.
The positive point is that VN-Index had a "withdrawal" that significantly narrowed the downward momentum towards the end of the session, but this narrowing level was not too strong.
Assessing the new growth drivers for the market at the end of the year, experts suggest a number of factors. First, the story of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates with a high probability of interest rate reduction taking place at the end of September is the biggest driving force for the stock market.
The second driving force comes from the positive economic recovery momentum. However, the growth rate is slow, the fourth quarter may not have high growth, but in general, Vietnam's economic picture in 2024 will have good growth.
The third motivation comes from the story that exchange rate pressure will soon cool down again. Since the beginning of the year until now, exchange rate pressure has increased, foreign investors have withdrawn many capital from the Vietnamese stock market. When exchange rate pressure decreases, foreign investors will reduce net withdrawals or soon return to net purchases.
And most importantly is the growth momentum of the stock group in the last 6 months of the year. The fourth quarter may grow slower than other quarters of the year but is still positive growth. Business valuation is still attractive, the P/E level around 12 times is quite low. Market yields are more attractive, investor yields on the stock market are higher than savings deposit interest rates.
In the short-term trading trend, analysts of CSI Securities Company believe that, at the present time, the differentiation is quite strong, so choosing an industry group and maintaining a cash ratio is important. is quite important to be able to flexibly seek profits.
Experts continue to prioritize holding the portfolio of stocks purchased in last week's down sessions, but limit additional purchases. You need to patiently wait until there is a profit before thinking about increasing the proportion.
Besides, investors also need to be absolutely disciplined and need to sell stocks that have violated the risk management threshold. The strong support level that can stop the current downtrend according to our expectations is around 1,217 points.
Regarding recommendations for investors, experts from KBSV Securities commented that it is likely that the corrective inertia will not end soon and negative psychology is still dominating most transactions, however support from the stock group pillars such as banking stocks are still playing a role in maintaining the uptrend for the index. Investors continue to be recommended to hold a low proportion and combine rotational trading with a portion of the stock at support areas.
Asean Securities also has the opinion that demand during the session is relatively good, but the market breadth is still in a state of stratification with only a few industry groups forming an early bottom (banking, retail, steel). Therefore, maintaining the viewpoint, investors consider disbursement during this period, focusing on discounted opportunities and have expectations of positive second quarter business results with a risk management zone of 1,220 point.
