The VN-Index ended October at 1,264.48 points, down 1.82% compared to September.
The first trading session of November continued to have a negative performance when it decreased by 9.59 points (-0.76%) to 1,254.89 points, recording a slight increase of 2 points compared to the previous week, remaining above the strong support zone, psychologically at 1,250 points.
Although liquidity remained at an average level during the week, there were no notable fluctuations, indicating that the general sentiment was still cautious. Large cash flows have not yet found their way to any specific industry group, instead circulating around medium and small-sized stocks with high speculative nature.
In contrast to the cautious trading of domestic investors, foreign investors had an active week, continuing to sell thousands of billions of VND, especially net selling nearly 7,400 billion VND of VIB and MSN shares.
On the HOSE floor, foreign investors bought the most VPB shares with a volume of more than 35.7 million units, the total net purchase value reached 698.8 billion VND, double that of the previous week.
On the contrary, with the sudden net selling session of VIB via negotiation method in the session on October 29, this was also the code that foreign investors sold the most last week with a volume of more than 300 million units, net selling value reaching more than 5,400 billion VND.
In second place is MSN with net selling volume reaching 26.14 million units, net selling value reaching 1,952.87 billion VND; while last week net selling was 188.33 billion VND.
The recent negative developments in the stock market are said to be partly due to the increase in exchange rates and the strong net selling by foreign investors. However, experts say that the impact of exchange rates is only temporary.
Entering November, according to analysts, the US presidential election in general does not create much impact. However, with previous statistics, the Vietnamese stock market always has a positive correlation with the US stock market.
According to Mirae Asset's analysis, the correlation between the S&P 500 and the VN-Index in the most recent month was 27%, and in the most recent quarter was 76%, so the US stock market's performance is expected to have a significant impact on the VN-Index's performance in the short term.
The US stock market's performance after the election has a higher probability of a short-term correction. This means that Vietnamese stocks may be slightly affected in the short term.
What experts are most interested in and are assessed to have the biggest impact on the market in the last two months of 2024 is the development of foreign transactions during the year-end portfolio review and the progress in the process of promoting market upgrading through removing the "Prefunding" bottleneck will be the focus of the market.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, expressed his opinion that exchange rate fluctuations are short-term, the current adjustment in the stock market is only a temporary phenomenon and will soon end, moving to a more positive scenario. Because the Fed is still considering lowering interest rates twice in early November and mid-December to stimulate the economy. Along with that, GDP growth and many positive macroeconomic indicators will also be the driving force to help the stock market soon return to an upward trend, especially in the last 2 months of 2024.
