At the end of the trading session on November 12, the VN-Index decreased by 5.5 points to 1,244.82 points. The HNX-Index decreased slightly by 0.17 points to 226.69 points. Cash flow continued to be weak and did not improve further in the afternoon session. At the end of the session, the trading value of all three floors reached nearly 16,000 billion VND, about 30% lower than the session on November 11. Foreign investors did not end their net selling streak but continued to net sell more than 700 billion VND. TCB shares were net sold over 100 billion VND.
Liquidity remains low, indicating a slowdown in both supply and demand. Short-term traders seem to be assessing the impact of Donald Trump’s upcoming US presidency on the Vietnamese economy, waiting for more information to support the domestic stock market.
The sluggishness of cash flow also comes from the fact that cash flow has not yet confirmed the leadership of large-cap stocks, when fluctuations and short-term adjustments in stocks in the VN30 basket appear, showing signs of prolonging, testing patience for current transactions.
According to analysts, this period still has potential for unpredictable fluctuations, requiring investors to maintain caution and have a careful observation plan. This helps to correctly assess trends and avoid risks from short-term noise signals. In particular, the continued strong withdrawal of foreign capital will be a factor to monitor in the following sessions to assess market prospects and investment orientation.
TPS Securities Company offers two scenarios for the market in November. The positive scenario is that VN-Index surpasses 1,300 points, starting a new uptrend (60% probability). This scenario occurs when the market can successfully bottom out at the price range of 1,240 points, only then will VN-Index have enough momentum to pull the index past the 1,300 point threshold. In this scenario, VN-Index really needs explosive liquidity along with the points. The price range that VN-Index can reach is the 1,340 point threshold.
The negative scenario is that VN-Index will decrease after losing the 1,240 point zone (40% probability). In this scenario, the market will face difficulties and the 1,240 point support level is not strong enough to support the market trend, then there is a high possibility that a downtrend will appear, bad scenarios will be opened and pull the VN-Index down to the 1,180 point zone (corresponding to the old bottom of VN-Index created in September 2024).
At the end of October 2024, the market is recording a fluctuating trend around the price range of 1,240 - 1,300 points, creating a foundation and looking for momentum to overcome the resistance level of 1,300 points. TPS expects that history may repeat itself and November may be the month of VN-Index's increase, ending the accumulation trend and opening a new uptrend for the end of 2024 and early 2025. The sectors that investors may be interested in in November are retail and livestock.
